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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m probably the location at the lowest as a % of climo right now.  Most places are getting close or have passed climo end in at 25%. But I haven’t complained once. Because it’s just a fluke. Blind luck. The fact we’ve had 3 snow events and are tracking several more is the pattern. Exactly where gets fringed or 5” or 10 is just luck. Over time elevation will help die to enhanced lift and colder temps but short term there are no guarantees.  And I see several more chances at least before the pattern expired so let’s wait before we declare it disappointing. 

 

The biggest problem I see is that we’re still on the NW flow on the backside of a trough after it progressed following the phased bomb. The mean trough hasn’t yet retrograded enough, everything this year is progressing so slow!  That phased bomb was just a fluke that amplified and took advantage of a temporarily weakness in the trough to cut. But until about the 25th we’re still in a NW flow. 
 

The kind of waves you’re describing, we had a ton in 2014-2015, usually require the trough axis to be further west. Weak open waves will get squashed south of us if the guidance is even close on the baroclinic boundary and trough axis.  Until we get the trough axis west a bit we will need something a bit more amplified to pump ridging and defy the NW flow.  If I was in Richmond or Raleigh or maybe even as far north as DC itself I might be rooting for open waves in this pattern, but if we want a region wide flush hit we need something to phase just a bit. 

I was definitely thinking of your area as one that has been really screwed so far. And like I said "so far" in my post. And if it wasn't for the pattern being really good so far and for people cashing in around me by pure luck, what I've gotten so far would have been pretty good given expectations before the winter started. But if the pattern really does flip in February, which is still unknown but being speculated, that gives us about two weeks to make it happen. And unless something changes, not much is going to happen for probably close to a week if the weekend thing misses as it appears it will. 

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  This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion.

I agree with you, but remember what we said about the Sunday deal?

Small, better changes that were offset by other changes that were worse, and also that the ultimate solution didn’t seem plausible. It’s just that this thing is sliding rather than a wound-up bomb.

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24 minutes ago, Amped said:

  This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. 

The Boxing Day Blizzard. I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and if I remember correctly it was the 12z GFS on 12/24 which provided a miracle after many had given up. Awesome storm 20 inches of snow!

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14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It starts in about 72 hours. Well, it was going to.

Ok.  So 96 hours out it’s looks great, 72 hours out it a dud?  Seems to me like the models rule the weather forecasting universe until they’re completely wrong.  But then right again 48 hours out.

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36 minutes ago, Amped said:

  This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. 

Oh lord, now you’ve done it. Lol

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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