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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow


stormtracker
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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Let's hear a little more about your thoughts. The evolution verbatim I'm not sure it will get with all these waves in flow. 

The Euro digs the NS sw more and involves most of the ss energy, while the GFS leaves it behind and has a following ss wave. The lead wave ends up flat/ damped as it moves east, and the following energy is also weak, and neither are able to induce a strong enough surface low very close to the coast. CMC is kinda interesting in that it is pretty much in between, with a decently sharp sw, but it is very positively tilted/progressive, and the outcome is actually worse than the GFS. 12z Euro moved more towards a further offshore developing low, but is still decent for eastern areas. Next few runs will be telling.B)

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Mount Holly thoughts- basically stay tuned, we just cant know yet.

Friday night into Saturday, a wave diving southeast out of central Canada will round the base of the long wave trough axis and head east. As the mid-level wave exits the east coast of the United States surface low pressure is forecast to form off of the NC coast. The latest run of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have the low offshore, but confidence is low here. It should also be noted that the energy responsible for the surface cyclogenesis is still across northern Alaska, meaning a lot can change. Have gone ahead and kept PoPs in the chance range at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same?

The surface low and the 500mb low are 800 miles apart on some models. The precip moves in lockstep with the baroclinic zone at this point.  Even better if the baroclinic zone is further north In AL/MS  so the low gets cranking earlier.

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same?

I was wondering the same thing.. umm 2014 memory? Although that year I think we also saw trends from north to south! LOL! We were always in the sweet spot that year. We can hope

 

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12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Whoever said there isn't SS energy involved is wrong FYI, can clearly see both streams here. Yea it ends up mostly NS, but the older more amped runs involved more phasing of the two streams

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z250_speed-2647600.png

That’s true. I’m the one who said it. As of now, all models are basically leaving this behind (for the most part)

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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

To be fair, it kinda depends on your exact location. I’m not saying it has been terrible, but given they hype and the close calls, my location has felt like a disappointment so far. If you live in parts of Virginia or the Eastern Shore, it’s been pretty awesome and might be about to be one of their best winters in recent memory if they hit it big on this one.

I’m probably the location at the lowest as a % of climo right now.  Most places are getting close or have passed climo end in at 25%. But I haven’t complained once. Because it’s just a fluke. Blind luck. The fact we’ve had 3 snow events and are tracking several more is the pattern. Exactly where gets fringed or 5” or 10 is just luck. Over time elevation will help die to enhanced lift and colder temps but short term there are no guarantees.  And I see several more chances at least before the pattern expired so let’s wait before we declare it disappointing. 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion.

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone consider what might happen if the front simply doesn't push as far south and all else stays the same?

The biggest problem I see is that we’re still on the NW flow on the backside of a trough after it progressed following the phased bomb. The mean trough hasn’t yet retrograded enough, everything this year is progressing so slow!  That phased bomb was just a fluke that amplified and took advantage of a temporarily weakness in the trough to cut. But until about the 25th we’re still in a NW flow. 
 

The kind of waves you’re describing, we had a ton in 2014-2015, usually require the trough axis to be further west. Weak open waves will get squashed south of us if the guidance is even close on the baroclinic boundary and trough axis.  Until we get the trough axis west a bit we will need something a bit more amplified to pump ridging and defy the NW flow.  If I was in Richmond or Raleigh or maybe even as far north as DC itself I might be rooting for open waves in this pattern, but if we want a region wide flush hit we need something to phase just a bit. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

agreed, but jeez man, a total cave from the EURO less than 24 hours after it was showing 1'+ through most of the area 5 days out? are we in bizarro land?

Total loss of any trust in that model , EPS included.  Waste your time and get your excitment up for a POS model.  Can not even get close to a correct forecast a few days away.  

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
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