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Thursday AM Jan 20 Anafront snow threat.


Sey-Mour Snow
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SPC has marginal risks down there.

 

NAM is by far more robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.

Didn't the NAM zero in on the strength of the Jan 7 event before the others?

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SPC has marginal risks down there.
 
NAM is by far the most robust of guidance, but the GFS and RGEM are actually supporting a smaller event. Euro/Ukie are kind of on their own with zilch. If GFS/RGEM ramp up a bit here at 18z, then I'll probably toss the Euro completely.

Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian
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Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text…


Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me!

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18 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Not sure why most of my post got cutoff…here’s the full text…


Too much support for this event from the mesos/gfs/Canadian to think it misses completely. I could see the NAM being a bit too juiced and it turning into a 1-2” type deal south of 84 vs a 2-4” regionwide event. And given that the Euro is on its own for this and the weekend event makes me think it’s clueless at the moment. I think 1-3” from pike south is a good first call. Anything to whiten the ground before the weekend arctic blast is fine by me!

I agree though will up you and go 2-4” south of 90

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Aside from the mesos, the GFS has been very stubborn about this one too.

Don't understand why people are calling it anafrontal. Sure a front passes but it's actually a wave developing on the southern extent which is pretty typically how LP develops. Many  claim their hate for small events here but in normal winters they make up to 2/3rds of the accumulation days. The 12 inch events in fact are rare. Young people here are pretty used to the big event and disappointed when it doesn't occur but fact is most don't work out.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't understand why people are calling it anafrontal. Sure a front passes but it's actually a wave developing on the southern extent which is pretty typically how LP develops. Many  claim their hate for small events here but in normal winters they make up to 2/3rds of the accumulation days. The 12 inch events in fact are rare. Young people here are pretty used to the big event and disappointed when it doesn't occur but fact is most don't work out.

some people are even calling it analfrontal

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7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

btw, it still does look like an anafront to me?

It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. 
 

Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s starting to develop a wave. These things aren’t purely binary. 
 

Either way, looks like GFS held serve. Would like to see some bumps N at 00z from the rest of guidance. 

isn't cyclogenesis along an anafront pretty typical?

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