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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


stormtracker
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6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NAM looking great for DC - 2 inches by 10 am and dumping. 

 

EDIT: 3 inches on the 10:1 maps.

The temperature drop isnt nearly as impressive on the NAM though, 32-33 during snow...TT 10:1 map generally shows 1-2"

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Boy, the Nam has been leading the way on this as to having it first (earlier this week)  but its really minimalizing it up this way now. 

Alot of the guidance is focusing the best precip just to the east of us.

I'd feel better about this one if I was from Carroll County east.

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11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Alot of the guidance is focusing the best precip just to the east of us.

I'd feel better about this one if I was from Carroll County east.

The front the wave is sliding among has been pressing more each run. Not overly optimistic up here. 

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      I'm always a big fan of the NAM Nest for this type of event, but it's worth noting that it's a bit later with the changeover than other CAMs, and it's also less aggressive with the temperature crash during and just after the event.     Actually, the HiRes Window FV3 is also a bit slower with the change to snow and is a bit closer to the NAM Nest temperatures (although it still drops lower as the event gets cranking).      I'm going to watch these details in later CAM runs today.

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting... 12z RGEM hangs some light snow around into the evening time period -- 21z or so

ETA -- I see why... front is slower than the NAM twins

And 12z RGEM says N and W of town get the 1-2" of snow... nothing for the i95 or major metros

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations
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