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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


stormtracker
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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Just a reminder the GFS isn't to be used for situations/events like these. Just at 18z yesterday, they had 3-5" along 95, while the euro had .5-1.5". 

Euro still has a better resolution and performed a bit better with this one. We know these are notoriously tricky and tough ones to do well in even during peak climo periods. 

yea, though even the short-range high res models called for more.  i'm not even sure a single flake fell in frederick and some of those models were calling for a couple of inches, though this is also why it's futile to just look at snow maps.  i had some doubts yesterday when i looked at the surface obs and saw the wind shift was still out in the midwest...the cold air just got delayed in an anti-cad kind of way.

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

elevation for the win. its not even a half inch here, just going to call it a trace

i can't tell if the cold air got delayed (probably at least part of the problem) or the precip was too quick to move through/low formed further south.  either way, timing was definitely off for the nw crew.  looks like eastern portions were at least able to snag some light stuff at the end.    

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i can't tell if the cold air got delayed (probably at least part of the problem) or the precip was too quick to move through/low formed further south.  either way, timing was definitely off for the nw crew.  looks like eastern portions were at least able to snag some light stuff at the end.    

A combination of both, I think. Chasing precip as cold air moves in, never works well for us. Precip moves out faster, cold air moves in slower. 

Regardless, I am happy with seeing snow this morning. Ground is white again, will be cold for the next few days. Could be worse! 

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FWIW, just drove from Arlington to Woodbridge (IKEA, because again, I hate myself). Flakes mixing in around beltway when I left at 8:45, then all rain from Braddock Rd south. On the way back, no flakes until I-66 (9:45ish), so it does not look like the snow line was really dropping south quickly at all.

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