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East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
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12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

These storms all seems like ones where we got NAMd, with the possible exception of boxing day.  I am pretty sure the GFS was first to bring that back.  I don't know about 96 but that was the EE rule era.  

When I say NAMd, I mean it worked out.

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones.

It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol.

Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do.  The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson.

So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones.

It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol.

Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do.  The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson.

So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

 

I love see the huge NAM figures 48 hrs - 36 hrs out.  I think the NAM did well Dec. 2020 for interior areas.  Hopefully 0Z Thursday... ;-) 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones.

It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol.

Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do.  The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson.

So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

 

Let me suggest David Ortiz. 

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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds!

 

Jan 96 storm stalled out.  That storm was responsible for me selling my snow plow and truck the following yr.  Made lots of $$ that winter.  Plowed for 7 days after that storm.   Lots of new business due to nobody being able to hit their accounts.  That amount of snow increases road hours drastically and vehicle breakdowns.  Made 75k on that storm alone.   Blood Money body takes a beating between hitting snow banks, reversing vehicle, dropping/raising/ angling plow and lack of sleep not to mention that storm in particular getting my vehicle stuck at least 10x due to snow drifts a couple as high as 8ft   Nobody to shovel your vehicle out but you

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones.

It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol.

Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do.  The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson.

So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

 

I believe they stopped  doing upgrades on the NAM back in 2017. They are working on some type of FV3 replacement. In the mean time, the Canadians are continuing to improve the RGEM which seems to be getting better. So maybe the RGEM will become the go to meso with 84 hrs once the NAM stops running. Not a big fan of having to learn all the new biases of a FV3 CAM model.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I believe they stoped doing upgrades on the NAM back in 2017. They are working on some type of FV3 replacement. In the mean time, the Canadians are continuing to improve the RGEM which seems to be getting better. So maybe the RGEM will become the go to meso with 84 hrs once the NAM stops running. Not a big fan of having to learn all the new biases of a FV3 CAM model.

Yes I really wished they'd upgrade the NAM instead, but I guess it will live on in the FV3?

The same way that the MRF transitioned to the GFS I suppose?

 

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4 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Jan 96 storm stalled out.  That storm was responsible for me selling my snow plow and truck the following yr.  Made lots of $$ that winter.  Plowed for 7 days after that storm.   Lots of new business due to nobody being able to hit their accounts.  That amount of snow increases road hours drastically and vehicle breakdowns.  Made 75k on that storm alone.   Blood Money body takes a beating between hitting snow banks, reversing vehicle, dropping/raising/ angling plow and lack of sleep not to mention that storm in particular getting my vehicle stuck at least 10x due to snow drifts a couple as high as 8ft   Nobody to shovel your vehicle out but you

I remember the LIRR was shut down for a week, no commuting into or out of the city.  That was the first 20" snowstorm in 13 years and no one knew how to handle it.

Also undermeasured, an argument could be made that it was closer to 30" than 20"

 

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I'd say about 50/50 for this one now. Euro having a hit 3 straight runs (big hit last two) is nothing to ignore. However the fact none of the other models have shown an actual hit is still a bit concerning.   

It's still rather early for all the models to show a hit.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I wouldn't expect all but I'd feel better if at least one of the gfs/cmc/ukmet were showing a hit on some of their runs.  

Correct, however the NAM taking a big step in the Euro direction is a good sign. If the ICON follows suite, I will be much more confident that this trend is really happening. 

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44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones.

It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol.

Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do.  The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson.

So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.

 

The NAM just managed to draw a walk with the last event.  It consistently over did mid level warming in my area and was way under with snowfall estimates. This time around it was the HRRR/RAP FTW.  It did do okay in the coastal areas.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

The NAM just managed to draw a walk with the last event.  It consistently over did mid level warming in my area and was way under with snowfall estimates. This time around it was the HRRR/RAP FTW.  It did do okay in the coastal areas.

Last event was one of the rare times the mid level warming was overdone. Usually the NAM nails those events but always exceptions.  

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  • wdrag changed the title to East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

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