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East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
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1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looking good

There's a lot going on at 500mb. Would love to see the euro hold and get some other guidance on board. Or at least start to. That was an improvement on the eps, so that's good. Would like to see the gfs come around at least somewhat to the euro idea in coming days. Cautiously watching. Following ensemble trends for now. 

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1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

Even a coastal hugger is probably a sleetstorm, this airmass is even colder than yesterdays I think and we saw how the storm yesterday overperformed even cutting inland. Look how far SE the Euro has snow/sleet even with a track near the BM. 

Millenium storm Dec 2000 was all snow here on western long island even though the low cut just west of Islip

 

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48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey how much fell there and up by where I live? I'll be going there next week and I wonder if I need to hire a snow plow guy.  The last one I had dented my garage with his plow.  He said there was so much snow he couldn't see where my garage was.

I received 3.7” here.  I would recommend you arrange for a plow guy.  There was probably in the range of 6” where you are.  

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah but this is the exact type of event it always botches...anytime you're dealing with trying to eject a S/W out of Texas or the Gulf in a pressing arctic air mass the GFS buries the wave in Mexico or the Gulf

It did well with the last storm which was also a Miller A coming up but this one is further east so I get it's different.  

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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Depends on where that boundary sets up. It could be a bit offshore or south of the area. 

So either it'll be great for snowlovers here or incredibly frustrating.

Tbh, given the SSTs and artic cold behind the front.. I would place the boundary closer, rather than farther, to the coast

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11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

FWIW the icon moved towards the euro idea 

It doesn't look like that to me at H5. On the ICON, the southern stream wave never really makes it to the downstream side of the trof to start bending the height lines northeastward in the Gulf coast states. The 18z still looks more like the UK or even GFS to me than the Euro. The ICON still needs a lot of work. The surface map is misleading.

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34 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

12z eps for Saturday 

373638250_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_126(2).thumb.png.1804fd92f53c7b9eeefc303e5c8babc4.png

1072716983_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_132(3).thumb.png.34d2a708466447bdcb24b3ae863d3971.png

00z for comparison 

736182464_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_138(2).thumb.png.f74be816d08bcd5ea51d2a8904b84d8a.png

323196901_eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_144(4).thumb.png.fedb0c78a53b7fae8a62173fdef3caaf.png

Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one 

Yes which means this is easier to track for this area.....much less to worry about.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully that trend works out.... NW trends are more likely than SE ones in the majority of cases.

 

Also have to think about the pattern. Right now I'd take my chances with amped over surpressed. Normally I wouldn't say that anywhere near the coast but this cold air in the next few weeks is strong.  Of course it depends a bit on Location, overamped got me an inch yesterday the ACY blizzard I didn't see a flake. However I realize for places like South Shore of LI and NJ coast it was the opposite.  

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one 

I certainly like the spot it's in currently. Long ways to go yet. There was a time that the last one was thought of as OTS. I don't trust anything :lol: Euro included. It'll be interesting to see what guidance does tonight. 

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  • wdrag changed the title to East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

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