Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I think most places are near or above average snowfall for January mostly because of the high-ratio event. And the places that missed that one got hit the storm before or the storm after. I feel like I've missed on everything so far this year, but if I add up the individual light events I'm probably near normal for the month. Nighttime, low impact snow alters the perception I think.

Overall though it's been cold and wet... just not particularly snowy. We might shift towards colder and drier for the later part of the month. I would prefer that not happen.

There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that.

 

Well I won't root against it. But personally I like front-loaded winters. Deep snow leading into a warm pattern that melts and turns to mud doesn't do it for me. I don't think that kind of storm is likely anyway. The only event that I have any confidence in is tomorrow morning.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know the violins and singing bye-bye OTS are close at hand, if not already pronounced by the weather ME (medical examiners): but below is why I cannot yet pronounce this gone.  Note the spaghetti on the right panel for the time shown-18z/Saturday/22.  The mean flow is less that 100% confident. MANY members of the 06z/19 have a hang back circulation that could mean a little later development and a more northward push if they verify.  I think our NAM/RGEM will be onto this by the 07z/20 cycle tomorrow morning if the hang back verifies. If not: the orchestra plays.  Click the graphic to get a better view, if interested.  My last on this, probably til Thursday morning. Have a day.

Screen Shot 2022-01-19 at 7.53.52 AM.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

See the 1980s when it was actually colder than this in January (avg temps around 25) and we saw even less snow than this.  Or December 1989 which was even colder with even less snow.

You want to have more snow around here?  Find a way to nuke the Pacific Ocean and get rid of it.

I mean "Don't Look Up" had an idea on how to do this...

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tough to get excited about the Thursday event, I don’t feel like rain to snow frontal passage events really ever play out all that great, and the official forecasts for this aren’t inspiring much joy. Would love to be surprised. 
 

Regardless, let that push through and let’s see how the models do afterwards, especially the short range. 
 

If there’s any hope at all for even a minor event, we’ll probably know tomorrow. 
 

It’s a shame because the ACY storm grossly underperformed where I am at the western inland section of Toms River (dry air and virga, sharper cutoff than they were forecasting right up until it began), and our quick hitter coastal grazer also underperformed where we were expected to see potentially the highest totals, and you folks near NYC overperformed (glad about that!). We only got about 4.5 inches whereas some of you had around 8, which is fantastic. 
 

Such a shame to waste a solid pattern, but winter definitely isn’t over and with the wonky way things have played out thus far, maybe we get lucky in Feb even in a milder set up. I guess we’ll see. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@LibertyBell

 

Right around 6 inches. However we were forecast to score decently in the first southern track storm and we got way less than what was forecasted even day of. The cutoff was sharper than anticipated, and the dry air to the north a bigger factor. The soundings were so horrid, I recall. 
 

The second storm we were forecasted to hopefully be in heavy banding, but watching the radar loop it just didn’t pan out for us, whereas you guys up north really cashed in. 
 

Not crying, I’m happy to have even something this season so far. December had me totally dispirited and apathetic. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

@LibertyBell

 

Right around 6 inches. However we were forecast to score decently in the first southern track storm and we got way less than what was forecasted even day of. The cutoff was sharper than anticipated, and the dry air to the north a bigger factor. The soundings were so horrid, I recall. 
 

The second storm we were forecasted to hopefully be in heavy banding, but watching the radar loop it just didn’t pan out for us. 
 

Not crying, I’m happy to have even something this season so far. 

Yep, I understand the frustration, ACY getting 12 inches was pretty irritating to watch for me too- it brought back memories of Feb 1989 when I took off from school for a snowstorm that never came, 6-8 inches that was all virga,  They never changed the predictions either, I listened to Craig Allen talk about the same prediction that never came to fruition.

And this blown forecast was repeated in December 1989, a cold and dry month, during which the one chance we had at a snowstorm (also a 6-8 prediction), turned to rain within a few minutes because of a secondary that formed too close to the coast.  Thunder and lightning....and rain.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And we down here in Ocean had two horrid, absolutely horrid winters back to back. 2019-2020 was a winter I’ve already deleted from my memory and 21-22, we didn’t score the same way you guys up north scored. I work in Union and my business had 16 inches from the Feb 1st storm whereas my house had like 3-4 from memory. 
 

Really longing for a killer snowfall, and it hurts doubly given we finally are in a decent pattern with cold air. I know the cold isn’t always necessary but we had two pretty warm Januarys back to back now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yep. Foot plus in Virginia beach. We high an dry. The nam did look better up top. But it dont climb the coast.  Gets kicked ots

You can't get excited for anything the models show anymore past 144 hours unless the gfs and Euro shows it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My first and probably only post about this suppressed garbage event. Once again looks like too many ducks on the pond/interference and the storm can’t amplify so it stays suppressed garbage. It’s impossible to count on anything over 72 hours out this winter because of the very progressive pattern. This is a take what you can get winter with lots of frustration. Hopefully the end of this month/Feb can turn it around. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/17/2022 at 2:56 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I never trust the CMC/GFS is these scenarios with the arctic high elongated down into the Gulf when you're relying on some sort ejecting wave...they are predominantly better models with northern stream systems.  The Euro almost always ends up winning these in this range, even during its years of sucking recently after that upgrade

:(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can't get excited for anything the models show anymore past 144 hours unless the gfs and Euro shows it.

The rule this season has been needing more than one model showing the event. The GFS was the overamped model on January 3rd initially showing the heavy totals near ACY in our area. But the mesos showed the confluence over our area and us missing the storm. This event it was the Euros turn to show several overamped runs before it backed off and joined the other models. It would be great to have the old days back like February 2013 and January 1996 when amped up Euro run was all we needed for a KU without any other models on board. But these days we need multiple globals on board beyond 72 hrs and then have the mesos hone in on the finer details like banding locations.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The rule this season has been needing more than one model showing the event. The GFS was the overamped model on January 3rd initially showing the heavy totals near ACY in our area. But the mesos showed the confluence over our area and us missing the storm. This event it was the Euros turn to show several overamped runs before it backed off and joined the other models. It would be great to have the old days back like February 2013 and January 1996 when amped up Euro run was all we needed for a KU without any other models on board. But these days we need multiple globals on board beyond 72 hrs and then have the mesos hone in on the finer details like banding locations.

Agree

Euro use to nail storms a few days out

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Euro use to nail storms a few days out

The EPS is great for general 500 mb teleconnections days 5 to 15. But the OP and EPS doesn’t have great skill with coastal storm tracks beyond 3-5 days. It does seem to have a slightly better long range track record with cutters like we had on Monday. Maybe the future 3-5 KM convection allowing resolution upgrade on the OP and EPS  will extend the range of coastal storm track prediction.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • wdrag changed the title to East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...