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East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?


wdrag
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2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It will eventually cave. No other model is remotely close to the euro.  It's been trash all season.  

Compared to the same time yesterday the models have moved MARKEDLY closer to the Euro solution. Just because they've had 2 runs where the progress has stalled on most models (and apparently gone back on the CMC), doesn't mean anything is done trending in one way or another. There's still enough lead time for substantial changes

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I have some advice for everyone/. If there is a big storm coming and you really dont want to miss up/. Do it Jim Cantorii style. Go to the storm. I went to Monticello Sunday night with the family and we saw about 11-12 inches. drove back to LI last night. No snow to shovel... obviously an expensive hobby, but worth it 1-2 times a winter

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Yup, Gfs has the southern energy take vacation in Mexico. You don’t want that. But the northern stream component looked a little bit better. The euro used to be better with handling the southern stream and phasing. So we'll see if that's still the case. It needs to keep the same solution at 12z.

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There's no reason why this can't keep trending north & west. I see a +AO/NAO with a +PNA and an Arctic supply over the area. 

This is reminscent of 1994. GEFS continues to trend higher heights offshore & SE Canada. 

And thanks Snowman19 for the weenies you warminista troll. You said every storm has trended NW this year and suddenly this one can't? 

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Sadly its looking that way. Gfs is the new king. The euro is horrible 

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

Thanks for this analysis. It sounds like the Euro was good enough to still keep a close eye on the threat.

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

Thank you for your input and insight.. so much better than “it’s terrible” “it’s all over” doom and gloom posts that we see all the time 

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

Thank you! To my untrained eye it seems like there's just a chaotic amount of energy and it's far enough out from now that all of the models are all handling it slightly differently. With so much going on expecting model convergence this early in the game doesn't seem reasonable!

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7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I do not agree with this. It is one run cycle during which every model is somewhat flatter/further south and east and the ECMWF is only very slightly further south and east & importantly to note, slower. That slowness continues the threat into Sunday with some question marks. One is timing. There are numerous impulses of energy s/w's into the southern stream which could develop. Which one is it going to be or will it be consolidated into one? The European IMO keeps this threat in play maybe another 12 hours later.  The Euro is not bad. It holds serve.

WX/PT

Most of the downstream changes are a knock on effect of subtle differences occurring inside hour 72 with regard to that northern stream piece.  It's becoming a bit less theoretical today.  Still some time for it to change again, but inside 72 you tend to look at it as a bit less theoretical vs trend tracking.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The funniest thing about this Euro run is it was also the crappiest with the anafrontal snow too so it was two shots at us lol

its coming to its senses and  starting to trend toward the GFS for Saturday but will it for Thursdays ???

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Greenland High at 1041mb atm...this should help us out with a bit better blocking for our potential snowstorm  

should that number hold thru the weekend- imho 

InkedOPC_ATL.thumb.gif.cf38459def8ff45b0d66dd9d32159677.gif

I also feel, not that much of a kick west brings weenie joy 

OPC prog 96hrs

A_96hrsfc.thumb.gif.eeb495a3d3c22877f393b9d44ce0fa3b.gif

just a hunch the progs for a better outcome, improve in the next 24

dm

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5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Greenland High at 1041mb atm...this should help us out with a bit better blocking for our potential snowstorm  

should that number hold thru the weekend- imho 

InkedOPC_ATL.thumb.gif.cf38459def8ff45b0d66dd9d32159677.gif

I also feel, not that much of a kick west brings weenie joy 

OPC prog 96hrs

A_96hrsfc.thumb.gif.eeb495a3d3c22877f393b9d44ce0fa3b.gif

just a hunch the progs for a better outcome, improve in the next 24

dm

hope you are  correct - but favoring the GFS solution which delays whatever potential till at least Sundaygfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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  • wdrag changed the title to East Coast Winter Storm (ECWS) potential Jan 21-22 was about 150 miles too far southeast. Is it ATL to New England, or just a portion of or does it yet fritter to a weaker 23-24 event only NJ/PA northward?
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

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