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OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.


wdrag
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HRDPS impressive I80 north.  watch it if Thunder snow gets going up here along the NYS-PA border. I  like its colder scenario but I'll defer to the fact that I may in error. Am expecting snow thru midnight in Sussex County NJ and possibly back and forth mix rain/snow to S+ between 1A-3A. 

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Hanging on to 31 here for the moment.  If you are lucky enough to be close to freezing when the precip starts on LI, it will be snow.  There is no warm nose of consequence for us as the first layer to go above freezing will be right at the surface and that will then proceed higher into the atmosphere (assuming the 3k NAM soundings are correct).  Rest assured it will torch, but no sleet here based on the above; just a little snow to rain.

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As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me.  

Anyone know what happened to the old Sacrus tracking images thread?  Used to love that thing...

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19 minutes ago, snywx said:

You can clearly see where CAD is setting up in this pic

Sussex and maybe northern Passaic in NJ as well as Orange and maybe northern Rockland in NY should hold pretty long tonight. It looks like anybody southeast of the higher terrain in Morris County NJ will succumb to the warming. There's a pretty strong temp gradient right now across this area.

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11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

That's impressive surface cold up there! Much different east of I-287 or south of I-80.

I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward. 

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3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I think pressure fall center near the sfc low will keep winds light ne thru midnight up here (iassalobaric gradient) and am not convinced we scour out aa above 32F prior to 4AM. Also HRDPS, HRRR and ECMWF are pounding snow up here in northern Sussex County northward Mid-3A. Amounts are probably too high in mxd precip but what I think is occuring is a fast occlusion with the upper low casting across our area 12z Monday ONLY briefly allowing 4 hour intrusion of warm air before its cold enough to snow again as the upper low shoots newd overhead. Poconos-catskills, Litchfield Hills may only see 3 hours of mxd precip at most. 18z EC amounts probably have a high mix bias but they are near a foot Poconos newd. I'll take a stab at more like 10" for reality KMPO northeastward. 

I agree with you, I think I84 is going to overperform. Precip is just racing. Hope it stays snow and doesn't flip to sleet quick up there.  

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