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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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2 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

About 4" here in "eastern Loudoun" under my winter weather advisory.  Mostly heavy sleet now, building a nice glacier on top of the powder.

 

I mean.. your advisory is for 2-4” and then mixed precip. Looks like it verified unless you flip back to snow. 

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Who here is near Dulles? 

My husband and daughters flight from Seattle is scheduled to take off on time at 4 PST with a wheels down time of Midnight here. How confident is the temperature rise and change to rain? They will be driving back up to Frederick and I am really thinking they just need to get a reservation and head home tomorrow. 

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2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Who here is near Dulles? 

My husband and daughters flight from Seattle is scheduled to take off on time at 4 PST with a wheels down time of Midnight here. How confident is the temperature rise and change to rain? They will be driving back up to Frederick and I am really thinking they just need to get a reservation and head home tomorrow. 

I am near Dulles and everything is a glacier.  All side roads untreated, unplowed.

 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Incorrect. 2-4” 

EA1561B5-28AD-46BF-94F0-26AD44BE5756.jpeg

Okay, so they updated it at 5:30 and you hit refresh more often than I do.  Bully for you.  It was 1-3" earlier.

The point you're missing is that if it wasn't snowing, I could get on my motorcycle and be in "western Loudoun" in 8 minutes.  At the same latitude and same elevation I am at now.  It's a completely arbitrary designation.

There are parts of Loudoun where the weather is often very different from my area, but they are not easily drawn as a straight line on a map.

 

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Just now, mattskiva said:

Okay, so they updated it at 5:30 and you hit refresh more often than I do.  Bully for you.  It was 1-3" earlier.

 

That’s how forecasting typically goes for our CWA my friend. They upgrade / downgrade totals mid storm during almost every storm. Makes sense given how on the cusp we typically are.  

I do agree though - where they cut off the eastern London line is a bit silly 

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Mix line is right on top of me as are heavy returns, but it’s still all snow but a light snow, which is confusing. Either way, expecting to hear pinging any second.

My brother said it’s about 50-50 snow/sleet in OEC. Sleet in Columbia. Pingers imminent for sure. 70 acts as a bit of a barrier with increased elevation north of it, but Expecting snow until about 8 here before we flip as well. 

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