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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

 

That’s an explicit idea and although I was rebuked about where the main center of circulation is, it seems like you concur.  When NWS was jumping all over the place late this morning they had DcA mixing by now then reverted back to snowfall slightly past dark.  We are losing the high pressure support but the low well may end up east of here and not over or west.  1994 had one like this but the snow only lasted 30 minutes then low 20’s  freezing rain.  Right now low would have to head NW to end up west of DC.  Memories of that kind of move from on the  coast are very rare. 

I think that’s exactly what models have been showing. The low getting somewhere near the coast and then being pulled due NW after being captured by that NS feature. If only the low could beat the NS feature to the punch and continue ENE. We’d be so money. 

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49 minutes ago, 87storms said:

nearby weather stations between downtown frederick and gambrill are still around 18-20 degrees.

 

34 minutes ago, MDSnowyWxTracker said:

Steady heavier snow here in Urbana, dropped another 2 degrees.  Down to 19 now.

My PWS in Ballanger Creek is at 18/16 currently with 1"

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

We are still holding on to our northerly surface winds. I dont see the surface getting above freezing out here now. Gonna be really ugly once we flip out here. 

pmsl.gif?1642367646235

Yeah man, I think my area over to yours is in for a nasty evening of ice. Zero doubt our mid levels get rekt, but the surface? Hard time seeing us climbing above freezing 

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Just now, jayyy said:

I think that’s exactly what models have been showing. The low getting somewhere near the coast and then being pulled due NW after being captured by that NS feature. If only the low could beat the NS feature to the punch and continue ENE. We’d be so money. 

Watch it close please and inform if you see that non NW motion taking shape 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Yeah man, I think my area over to yours is in for a nasty evening of ice. Zero doubt our mid levels get rekt, but the surface? Hard time seeing us climbing above freezing 

I'm just hoping we can hang on to the mid-levels or at least sleet till the dry slot arrives.  

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Watch it close please and inform if you see that non NW motion taking shape 

I know some folks like to rely on models like the HRRR & RAP mid storm, which can be useful for a point of reference no doubt, but I tend to watch pressure maps and the radar like a hawk during storms. Nowcasting is the most reliable tool during game time for me. Even when things unfold as expected, it’s exciting to watch. 

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23 minutes ago, Potvinsux said:

Blizzard conditions in Snowshoe... Snow coming into cracks of windows and sliding door now.  Impossible to be on the slopes right now.

 

https://youtu.be/9N12c42uK_E

Yea we stopped skiing early and had lunch. Now at split rock pools.  Tomorrow will be awesome if the wind dies down.  We probably won’t get too much between 6pm-midnight in the dryslot but I expect the upslope to start cranking by 1-2am. I could see another 6-10” from that later tonight through tomorrow. 

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