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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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don't know if this was posted already but the morning AFD from LWX had this from their forecaster noting possible need to up snow totals:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

I performed a cursory analysis of current conditions this
morning and I found that temps are running a few degrees cooler
than forecast with dewpoints in the single digits. Up stream
observations in NC and southern VA suggests that snow is
over performing. I have adjusted my snow ratios this morning to
account for the well below freezing layer ahead of the
precipitation which should allow for higher snow rates. Initial
onset of precipitation is on track this morning and snow should
fluffy to start before switching over to wet snow as the layer
starts to warm and transitions over to a wintry mix for most
areas along and east of I-81. I will continue to monitor current
conditions to see if I need to up snow totals. It wouldn`t
surprise me if we get higher snow totals further eastward than
expected due to extremely cool air mass ahead of this system.
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One of the trends I like seeing on the RAP/HRRR combo is the downward adjustment of the surface temp for later this evening. It might not make it down to 32 for area east of Rt 15 beyond 03z, but it's trending colder west of their, and that spells a greater threat for ice. Also, the surface is extremely cold, especially the elevated areas where ice may occur while temp is between 32-34 degrees. Some slick spots will show up late, even for those in the rain. Keep an eye on that. 

Snow forecast looks pretty solid right now. I might bust a bit low on some of my ranges here if the trend holds. Ground truth to the south says this will be a better event than what we were anticipating 24 hrs ago. Love reverse, positive trends :)

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