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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is why it's always best to wait until approach before jumping on Nam thermals when they diverge. Meso models can go off on tangents due to their intense resolution. Now that the storm actually has a good circulation, we'll see mesos hone in on the mids. 

They’ll have it nailed down by this time tomorrow 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is why it's always best to wait until approach before jumping on Nam thermals when they diverge. Meso models can go off on tangents due to their intense resolution. Now that the storm actually has a good circulation, we'll see mesos hone in on the mids. 

This has potential to be a sneaky event.

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Just now, snowmagnet said:

Is there any chance of this being like the mid-January 2000 surprise that didn’t change to rain? 

Pretty much none, but I think a longer period of ZR is possible for areas NW of the Piedmont. Rates may prevent high accretion, but temps staying at or below freezing could definitely occur

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9 minutes ago, GATECH said:

I need a cigarette after the last 5 minutes of this thread…19, dp7, wet Bulb 16.7.

time for boozy coffee with this stuff, love it!

 

42113A3A-0DB5-4F51-ADC3-D43CAEBBD18F.jpeg

Good choice.. I actually just went the old school bailey's and Irish whiskey/ whip cream rout... 

Snow on the doorstep here in Glen Allen,VA hopefully can take advantage of some good rates b4 the changeover down here

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You maybe underestimating 49 degree ocean temps, SE winds, and that pesky 850 low.  

Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho.

Roger that.  Still 14 here which is impressive. Let the chips fall.  It’s game time.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Air is damn cold for our area so pretty dense dome to push out of here. More often than not, surface hangs longer than expected in these setups. Nothing can stop the 850mb push tho.

It is super cold out and that cold air damming is impressive. You think this leads to more freezing rain than expected once we change over?

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6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior.  Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen.

Oh, NAM.  12z is snow through ~6pm with about 0.3" precip in DC and frozen through ~8pm with another 0.2".  So, not only a later changeover, but more precip early.

 

And in Minnesota - Climax is very close to Fertile and up the road from Moorhead.  So, yeah.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Oh, NAM.  12z is snow through ~6pm with about 0.3" precip in DC and frozen through ~8pm with another 0.2".  So, not only a later changeover, but more precip early.

The NAM is that one friend who you know is gonna show up to the party, but when they do, they are drunk already

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