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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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16 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I like the look of precip starting to streak through the ATL area. I know this is probably not hitting the ground but it does seem to be building in intensity. No model has that moisture that far north. Maybe something to watch for light snow to breakout in parts of WNC later this afternoon. 

I thought the models only show what reaches the ground so maybe that's why it didn't show that ?

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10 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

I know it can’t be taken verbatim but I feel like we get a pretty good thump tonight based on the NAM here in Franklin County. I’m about 3 miles east of Youngsville.  Figure maybe we can squeeze out a solid 3-5 here.  

That's what I'm thinking, too. 3 should be on the low end here. 

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47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt.

Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally

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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed- didn’t panic and have only changed their call map from 3-4”, to 1-2”, to 2-3”. A spread of 1-4” is not bad considering the hand we’ve been dealt the last 36 hours. Looks like we’re locked in to a 2-4” storm for many in central/eastern NC and I hope everyone on here enjoys every second of it even if 6”+ Maps from a few days ago don’t happen and it’s unlikely they will. This will be our best storm since January 2018 (I hate the December storm bc it snowed only at night and poured rain here all day while places 20 miles away got dumped on all day). This frankly given the cold air and chance for rapid accumulation will be a fantastic storm regardless our final tally

We live 4 miles NE of RDU and really didn’t transition to rain in that December event plus got 2 more the next day for a total  of 10 plus.  My  oldest son was at NCSU at the time and only got like 3 .

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Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

We live 4 miles NE of RDU and really didn’t transition to rain in that December event plus got 2 more the next day for a total  of 10 plus.  My  oldest son was at NCSU at the time and only got like 3 .

Yea we were in between. Happy we got the 6.5” we did but man it was frustrating seeing posters near you seeing snow most of the day while mine turned to puddles in the downpour. We only picked up a dusting too the next day, that missed us to the north and west 

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NAM upped totals slightly for a more expansive area but man someone is going to be hurt on the NW edge of where the shield sets up. 0-3” pretty dang fast. Gradient looks to setup between Greensboro and Durham. Overall very little shift in precip edge. ICON actually backed off fairly significantly 

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH upgrade Wake to a WSW later. It might be one of those as the situation unfolds things. 

They are not going to budge until the precip shield becomes established.

 

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RAH update, mentions the updates to warnings would later if done

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z-
initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term
forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high
nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air
advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are
just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S
half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given
the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will
maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon,
before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the
evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more
hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect
temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding
daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with
occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as
the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which
will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the
day. -GIH
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6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Apparently no one else is either Even with the trends for 2.5 runs of 90% of Models Brad went backwards on our totals lol :lol: he had me in 1-2” now he’s like yea may not even see. Flake …. Ummmm 

We better see white considering these crazy winds and a current temperature of 29 imby. 

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