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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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Greg Fishel's thoughts. 

OK, NOW THAT I'VE RETURNED TO HOME BASE, LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS NEXT STORM!

One thing that is clearly different about this one is that the cold air is going to blast in, and this time it's gonna stick around for the duration of the storm. At this point in time, I honestly believe that everything the Triangle area receives from Thursday night through Friday night will be in the frozen form. And yes it is possible it will be all snow, but I'm not ready to make a commitment on that just yet. Whereas the last system was rapidly intensifying and cutting inland across the southeastern states, this storm will be offshore and weaker, allowing the cold air to make it all the way to the coast. We could even see freezing rain here in Myrtle Beach!

Another thing that's tricky about this one is that instead of a precipitaton shield moving in from another location, in this case it will be developing almost right over us. It's much easier to watch a ball rolling toward you at a certain speed, and estimate when the ball will get to you. It's an entirely different matter when the ball suddenly appears in front of you, and you have to react quickly! Will this storm be a series of weak waves of low pressure, or will there be a consolidation of atmospheric efforts leading to one main surface low pressure area? These are the issues for this particular event, and it will probably be another 24 hours before I feel some degree of confidence as to how weather conditions will evolve late in the week. 

One thing for sure, I won't have to travel 300 miles to see winter weather this time. Mother nature is going to save me a ton of gas money!

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Greg Fishel's thoughts. 

OK, NOW THAT I'VE RETURNED TO HOME BASE, LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS NEXT STORM!

One thing that is clearly different about this one is that the cold air is going to blast in, and this time it's gonna stick around for the duration of the storm. At this point in time, I honestly believe that everything the Triangle area receives from Thursday night through Friday night will be in the frozen form. And yes it is possible it will be all snow, but I'm not ready to make a commitment on that just yet. Whereas the last system was rapidly intensifying and cutting inland across the southeastern states, this storm will be offshore and weaker, allowing the cold air to make it all the way to the coast. We could even see freezing rain here in Myrtle Beach!

Another thing that's tricky about this one is that instead of a precipitaton shield moving in from another location, in this case it will be developing almost right over us. It's much easier to watch a ball rolling toward you at a certain speed, and estimate when the ball will get to you. It's an entirely different matter when the ball suddenly appears in front of you, and you have to react quickly! Will this storm be a series of weak waves of low pressure, or will there be a consolidation of atmospheric efforts leading to one main surface low pressure area? These are the issues for this particular event, and it will probably be another 24 hours before I feel some degree of confidence as to how weather conditions will evolve late in the week. 

One thing for sure, I won't have to travel 300 miles to see winter weather this time. Mother nature is going to save me a ton of gas money!

he's a believer.  

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29 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

paste job triangle SW and NE on EURO.  feels like models are all in agreement.  Hopefully everyone gets at least  a little snow at some point.  

Models are nowhere near in agreement. NAM gives me almost a foot while Euro is bone dry. 

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Models are nowhere near in agreement. NAM gives me almost a foot while Euro is bone dry. 

for areas that i noted, most models are consistent in showing moderate to significant accumulation.

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GSP: 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EST Wednesday: Precipitation now appears to evenly transition from primarily isentropically-lifted air over a developing in-situ CAD wedge in the near-term, to synoptically- driven by late Thursday. A sharpening, positively-tilted 500mb trough will cross the Ohio Valley on Friday, generating a slew of forcing, basically from the start of the forecast period, along the remnant frontal boundary east of the forecast area and strengthening a surface cold layer via evaporative cooling. As noted by the previous forecaster, none of the deterministic models depict the development of a cutoff low any longer, in favor of simply deepening the trough as it enters the forecast area Friday evening. A 250mb jet will simultaneously develop over Tennessee, which should serve to enhance coastal cyclogenesis should it align well with midlevel features. The GFS and CMC, for example, have consistently toned down the strength of the surface lows they develop as the best upper forcing sets up south and east of the midlevel baroclinic zone; the latest ECMWF, by contrast, aligns 250mb divergence, 500mb DPVA, and the location of the developing surface low quite well, such that the cyclone becomes much deeper than the other models depict. At the very least, models have improved in their timing of events - with the latest runs of all three global models indicating that activity will peak from 00Z to 06Z Saturday. Which of these solutions plays out will be crucial in determining what sensible weather is produced for the western Carolinas. A stronger low translates to better moisture flux as the low travels up the coast, and also more pronounced 850mb WAA. Consequently, the GFS and CMC both depict comparatively small QPF totals vs. the ECMWF; but because the ECMWF depicts the strongest low-level WAA Friday night, it also brings a warm nose farther inland and depicts a greater likelihood of frozen p-types compared to the basically rain-snow solutions of the GFS and CMC. All things considered, however, uncertainty still looms large in this forecast. Even a cursory look at ensemble guidance indicates considerable question over the ultimate location of the developing surface low, and the timing of dry air arriving in the Carolinas on the tail end of the system, which would impact the duration of any precipitation.

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WSW for Myrtle Beach, Florence and Wilmington: 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 332 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059- 192100- /O.NEW.KILM.WS.A.0002.220121T0500Z-220122T1700Z/ Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender- Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick- Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion- Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown- Central Horry-Northern Horry- Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro, Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, Lake Waccamaw, Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro, Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport, Sunset Beach, Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris, Green Sea, and Aynor 332 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Freezing rain will be the primary wintry precipitation occurring throughout the watch period. Widespread significant ice accumulations are possible with early estimates at 0.20 to 0.40 inches, except around one tenth of an inch along the immediate coast. * WHERE...Portions of Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From Midnight Friday through Noon Saturday. * IMPACTS...The forecasted ice accumulations will make traveling extremely hazardous if not impossible. Power outages and tree damage will likely occur with these potential ice amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this evolving and potentially extremely hazardous winter storm. && $$ dch

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

All the models trendes back south and east at 6z compared to 0z. Eastern NC, this looks to be just for yall as of now. 

We'll certainly take the rare true hit. The last run kicked up our totals a bit, if it holds true should be one of the better events we've had the last several years. Seem to recall January 2017 had a similar coastal run, though the precip shield came further inland that particular event.

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