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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Is this the new banter thread?

I think you have a weird mix of emotions on here. A little bit of "here we go again", a little bit of "most focus is going to the situation at hand", etc. But to balance my pop cultural reference I will say this: On a wholesale level this potential looks much more fruitful than our current storm. Temperatures are leagues better. Huge, consistently modeled cold push. The smart folks at Wilmington's weather office have already put in snow in their forecasts. That almost never happens. I think that just about every office around here already introducing snow for next weekend is a pretty big sign. The National Weather Service is generally the largest brain trust of meteorological knowledge that we have and it's both rare and awesome to see them biting this far out.

Since we're immediately following a storm that had a ton of potential that backslid into Miller B mush as we got closer, I think feeling snakebitten and being a little reticent to buy into this is understandable. But make no mistake- I'm feeling pretty excited now that I've digested things. Hoping that the 12z suite is positive after I've left such a gushing review of the potential here. 

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15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I think you have a weird mix of emotions on here. A little bit of "here we go again", a little bit of "most focus is going to the situation at hand", etc. But to balance my pop cultural reference I will say this: On a wholesale level this potential looks much more fruitful than our current storm. Temperatures are leagues better. Huge, consistently modeled cold push. The smart folks at Wilmington's weather office have already put in snow in their forecasts. That almost never happens. I think that just about every office around here already introducing snow for next weekend is a pretty big sign. The National Weather Service is generally the largest brain trust of meteorological knowledge that we have and it's both rare and awesome to see them biting this far out.

Since we're immediately following a storm that had a ton of potential that backslid into Miller B mush as we got closer, I think feeling snakebitten and being a little reticent to buy into this is understandable. But make no mistake- I'm feeling pretty excited now that I've digested things. Hoping that the 12z suite is positive after I've left such a gushing review of the potentia

I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter

December flowers bring January snow showers? :sizzle::mapsnow:

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From NWS Charleston 

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An arctic high will drop out of the Northern Plains Wednesday
night, pushing a cold front into the area on Thursday. There
looks to be enough moisture and forcing for scattered showers to
accompany the front. The front is expected to stall just off the
coast and transition into a broad baroclinic zone. A potent
upper shortwave approaches on Friday, causing cyclogenesis
either in the eastern Gulf of Mexico or along the Southeast
coast.

There are significant model differences regarding the location
and track of the coastal low. The ECMWF and CMC have a much
wetter solution with the low developing over the eastern Gulf
and tracking up the coast. The 00Z GFS was considerably drier
than its 18Z counterpart and has the low developing well off the
Southeast U.S. coast, then tracking northeast. The QPF late
Thursday night through Friday night will be critical because
thermal profiles support some wintry precipitation.

Model soundings and partial thicknesses show the potential for
some freezing rain over northern and western zones late Thursday
night as surface wet bulbs steadily drop. On Friday, the
predominant p-type depends on which model you look at. The GFS,
with its offshore low track, indicates mainly snow would occur
across the majority of the area. Meanwhile, the wetter ECMWF/CMC
and its closer low track show mostly rain or freezing rain on
Friday, then some changeover to snow Friday night. All models
show drier air moving in from the west Friday night, ending any
precip by daybreak Saturday. Given that this potential event is
so far in the future (Day 6), we kept things simple by
introducing some freezing rain over northern areas late
Thursday night, then a combination of rain and/or snow Friday
and Friday night.

 

So they're saying it's a chance for the Lowcountry :D

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I appreciate your insight. Definitely just kidding around here. Hard to get excited about something 6 days away when it's currently snowing outside, but wow, who thought we'd get such a stellar pattern out of this winter

Its alot easier to look 6 days ahead when 1.5 inches of rain just fell @33-34 degrees!:P :(

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1131932402_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh6_trend(3).thumb.gif.012686af82f7d36d286dd94d0438f95b.gif.c341862b8be62d67e9492a04105e0c43.gif 

If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward

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25 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

1131932402_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh6_trend(3).thumb.gif.012686af82f7d36d286dd94d0438f95b.gif.c341862b8be62d67e9492a04105e0c43.gif 

If you are hemming and hawing about losing the storm, I would not. I saved a trend GIF that storm that buried Nashville a few weeks ago. It's the clearest NW trend/amped example I've ever seen. It happens a lot. "Hey shortwave, be more amped! Be stronger! Dig a little more!" Not the hardest things to root for on modeling going forward

Excellent point we saw how much the current storm trended NW on the GFS.

 

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