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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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6 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate).  It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..

It’s a tough call. The mass access to and distribution of model outputs create a dilemma for meteorologists, especially tv Mets. They are constantly bombarded with questions about model outputs. It would be difficult to not Acknowledge models. Most tv Mets now are publicly interpreting different model depictions when major events are likely.

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3 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate).  It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..

All he is doing is giving the viewers the possibilities. We are smart enough to know what he is doing and we appreciate his contributions to keeping us safe in the Upstate. Chris is one of the best in the business. 

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3 hours ago, msuwx said:

When you ae dealing with stream interaction/ phasing, the UKMET is usually one of the best. 

We shall see. 

Considering this endorsement of the UKMET and its most recent run I’m surprised there hasn’t been more discussion.  Verbatim, the storm would be huge for most on this board!  Rooting for a solution like this on future runs. 

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6 minutes ago, gman said:

All he is doing is giving the viewers the possibilities. We are smart enough to know what he is doing and we appreciate his contributions to keeping us safe in the Upstate. Chris is one of the best in the business. 

Well in 2014 he mentioned GSP getting like 14" (as models showed), when we got less than 2".  He's learned to mostly take the conservative approach to accumulations, as NWS has, until this.  Which is why I'm surprised..  

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2 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Well in 2014 he mentioned GSP getting like 14" (as models showed), when we got less than 2".  He's learned to mostly take the conservative approach to accumulations, as NWS has, until this.  Which is why I'm surprised..  

He is only reporting what models are depicting now, which is not an endorsement of a forecast. The contact is clear here.

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It's definitely notable the EURO is the most amplified model currently. That usually means it's noticing something the other models aren't due to its superior resolution. Since we now have a prior storm to compare this one to (Trend wise), I would say the GFS will likely trend towards the EURO (at least a bit). That said, the fact that most of the other models are farther east would lead me to believe we won't go to a Miller B solution. IMO this storm evolution is likely to start Thursday night as the arctic front drags through. This will setup a stationary thermal boundary somewhere near the coastline. Which the following impulses will ride. The main question is what happens on Saturday as the main PJ impulse dives down? If it amps like the euro eastern NC get's ice and western get's snow. And visa versa if it's more suppressed. The euro is also throwing in the chance of a last minute phase solution which could be good for eastern NC from a deformation band/back end snow scenario. The I think by tonight/tomorrow the models will start to converge.

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Anyway you slice the models today:

1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 

2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out

3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east

4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event 

In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today 

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The main diff  b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_14.png

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11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Anyway you slice the models today:

1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 

2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out

3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east

4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event 

In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today 

This^^ absolutely the best way to summarize things, state what we know and allow models to sort through these moving parts. Everything will become more clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Also ICON looked to be more in the EURO, NAM camp.

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