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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

If this ends up not snowing west of 95 the global models need to be put out to pasture. 

Your juvenile rants get old.  I love your enthusiasm when things are going well on the maps.  There were 2 phases of energy trying to converge and it just never materialized.  I live in the Pee Dee River valley between CLT and Pinehurst.  A total of 4in of snow in 21 yrs.  My sister in Houston has had almost twice as much snow as me.  Reading these maps and listening to the great knowledge on this board trying to decipher the data is awesome.  Some of your posts take the fun out of it.  

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From Kat Campbell at WRAL:  WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening.
The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking.
It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons:
-The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either
-This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning
-We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday
-Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months
 
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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:
From Kat Campbell at WRAL:  WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening.
The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking.
It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons:
-The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either
-This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning
-We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday
-Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months
 

Major winter storm in the Triangle?  What is she looking at? Maybe for Elizabeth City. 

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20 minutes ago, coralreefer said:

Your juvenile rants get old.  I love your enthusiasm when things are going well on the maps.  There were 2 phases of energy trying to converge and it just never materialized.  I live in the Pee Dee River valley between CLT and Pinehurst.  A total of 4in of snow in 21 yrs.  My sister in Houston has had almost twice as much snow as me.  Reading these maps and listening to the great knowledge on this board trying to decipher the data is awesome.  Some of your posts take the fun out of it.  

The models being awful 48 hours out and making such a dramatic change in 12 hours takes the fun out of it. I guess you're not a aports fan and never vent about your teams when they suck,  too. 

But maybe the Euro is right. That would be great. 

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9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:
From Kat Campbell at WRAL: 
It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons:
-The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either
-This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning
-We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday
-Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months
 

I did not know this.  So why so much angst?

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The models being awful 48 hours out and making such a dramatic change in 12 hours takes the fun out of it. I guess you're not a aports fan and never vent about your teams when they suck,  too. 

You have been this way for a long time here. Its just weather. If it happens good, if it doesnt, life goes on.  Get a grip on reality

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