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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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11 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

And the Euro comes in a little better... so here's the wrap on tonight...

NAM ✔️ 

RGEM ✔️ 

ICON ✔️ (Eastern NC/SE VA)

GFS ✔️ 

GEFS ✔️ 

CMC ✔️ 

UK ✔️ (Central/Eastern NC/SE VA)

EURO ✔️ (Central/Eastern NC/SE VA)

This was 11 hours ago. Ridiculous. 

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Maybe we should be ashamed of looking at the globals. They have been horrible with the totals just 3 days out. Yesterday they were great, and today 2 days out they keep shrinking. 

At least they’re all moving in unison. Can’t even remember how many times that was an issue while living in NJ.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

This was the GFS last night. 

snku_acc.us_ma (2) (5).png

 

This was the Euro this morning. 

1642896000-YBP4SyTxgLo.png

 

Can't even have confidence in these outside 48 hours. That's terrible. 

I mean, we never have been able to have confidence in them, to be honest.  Atleast not with any consistency.  This is really nothing new.

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Once again..  all models are wrong, some are useful.  
It is very rare to get a 6+ snowfall here in central NC.  In my opinion, the models are trending toward a more climatological solution.  A 1-2" event would still be a win for our area.  
Really the only thing that changed was the QPF.  We will see what the next run brings.

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15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This was 11 hours ago. Ridiculous. 

It sure is.  I can't believe the overall performance but the euro has been especially bad.  Just 36 hours ago the euro had a half a foot into northeast ga and back to Charlotte  just 24 hours ago. Nevermind the euro ensembles over nc and va. Truly awful and absurd. 

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Professional lurker here (10 posts in 12 years, I just enjoy reading the insightful posts), and was wondering if we have a "mute" option that we could turn on.  You know, where the same broken record keeps posting, you can mute them from your own personal view, not the entire board.  Have seen that option on other message boards, and I think it would be most useful here.  Ok, I'm finished posting... until next year or the year after :)

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Once again..  all models are wrong, some are useful.  
It is very rare to get a 6+ snowfall here in central NC.  In my opinion, the models are trending toward a more climatological solution.  A 1-2" event would still be a win for our area.  
Really the only thing that changed was the QPF.  We will see what the next run brings.

At this point I’m fine with no wintry weather at all compared to all the ice that is being forecasted for NE SC.
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