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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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33 minutes ago, jlh said:

We live very near you then, most of the local folks are giving an onset time in the early morning hours Friday. So if you are flying into Norfolk Friday morning you might be cutting it kind of close. NWS has mentioned an inch of snow overnight Thursday with Hampton Roads not expecting a break between systems.

There's not going to be any issues on the road in Hampton Roads or Northeast North Carolina until at the earliest Friday evening.

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50 minutes ago, msuwx said:

The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 

6z vs. 0z Euro:

154431901_ECMWF_WeatherBellMaps(1).thumb.png.82193007c48d05120838625b8d61a769.png

 

41 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours

Yep, us on the western edge will be watching that precip field very closely in hopes of even the slightest westward expansion. 

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8 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Al Conklin out Of CLT for those interested also shows Raleigh 

 

I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible.

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42 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

Yep. We're in Moyock. We're driving though. Thinking of leaving around midnight tomorrow and get home around Noon on Friday. 

Same re: Moyock. Looking at the models we should be getting down to freezing right around the time you would be starting your drive with precip already in the area. Drive careful.

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40 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

There's not going to be any issues on the road in Hampton Roads or Northeast North Carolina until at the earliest Friday evening.

Definitely can't say I agree. Friday morning's commute will have some issues in places with it getting progressively worse.

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9 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible.

I can only speak for myself but I believe he’s using a bit of experience with these systems…. How they act Or “Overachieve” in overrunning  ect. I didn’t even realize he’d been in CLT on WBTV as long as anyone I guess bc he’s in the morning I never noticed but he’s also been there since I was a kid like BP,Crum,East,EricT(Retired). 

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9 minutes ago, jlh said:

Definitely can't say I agree. Friday morning's commute will have some issues in places with it getting progressively worse.

Who knows. I'm thinking we're not going to have any road issues until it gets below 30 and that is not going to happen until Friday evening. Round one is not going to produce any problems. It's round two gets going earlier it's likely going to be on the south side and more sleet Friday morning with temps 33-35. Maybe colder up the peninsula. 

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