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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

One run isn't a trend really..  Gotta keep watching.  For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed?

Exactly …..if ever a storm to ignore Anything but ensembles it’s this one…. A “Trend” would be 2-3 straight runs of majority of ensemble movement one way or another …. The Ops are useless Jmo 

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I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point 

My bust on that. However as a whole and this particular forum is the SE that run was “drier” as a whole for the said forum. Trust me I’m in SE Va and elated but when you see QPF backing off in the western part of the state opposed to 12z well you have to wonder what future runs will hold. That run was drier qpf wise for everyone.

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More shortwave fun. This time the southern wave gets strung out hence it being drier.

Prior to that it was actually similar to the RGEM with the northern waves. There’s a second piece of energy that starts to interact with the southern wave. But the RGEM doesn’t leave as much of the southern wave behind as the Euro does.

The prior Euro run didn’t have that second piece of northern energy. So while drier now it looks like a closer consensus on what waves are available but how they interact is still up in the air.

52eff10c69816d4161ecea6aa43f03b4.jpg


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im in surry county northwest nc and i feel like this one is almost a done deal for being a miss. I am hoping folks elsewhere reel this one in however with these models who knows whats gonna happen. i'd be worried about this system getting to far suppressed for central and eastern nc but hopefully it wont 

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2 minutes ago, Beach Snow said:

My bust on that. However as a whole and this particular forum is the SE that run was “drier” as a whole for the said forum. Trust me I’m in SE Va and elated but when you see QPF backing off in the western part of the state opposed to 12z well you have to wonder what future runs will hold. That run was drier qpf wise for everyone.

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day. 

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day. 

Agreed, i truly believe and have been beating down the door that the Canadian has nailed this one. Run after run after run with the almost same solution except today but the OP wasn’t even close to the ensembles and most Mets discounted the OP because of that

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My current forecast for this system is pretty broad at the moment due to uncertainty in the models, but most of the data shows the best chance of wintry weather to be east of I-77 roughly. In matter of fact, some areas in northeast NC may see some large snow totals from this event (purple shaded). Blue areas may see moderate snow and a wintry mix from the front, while the red areas are expected to see the chance for damaging freezing rain. In the west, light freezing rain is expected in parts of South Carolina with the chance for light snow over the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont.

All the models really seem to be coming together on this general idea. Big snows (6+ inches) probably for many areas in northeast NC and southeast VA. I can even see some snow stretching back to CLT and GSO, but the main event will be towards the coast. I am really getting worried about the overrunning ice threat in SE N and NE SC. Could see a really bad situation in this area. Western NC will probably miss out unless something major changes.

1182022.png

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Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

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12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

I feel like I just watched a horror movie

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13 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

It does look like a little of your hope might be happening on the 0z NAM.  Not a lot, but some

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