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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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Can we all stop gaslighting each other? It was exhausting last storm. We all want the same thing but someone has to lose when it happens. Whether you had snow an hour ago or 15 years ago, we’re all weather enthusiasts, so we’ll each want a storm at every turn. If we can’t land it in the west, I really do hope you folks down east get a good one. Everyone will have opportunities the pattern is loaded.

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS with 4 distinct shortwaves to keep track up at hour 84, lol good luck. Forecasting this is like defending one of those Chiefs plays where they have Tyreek Hill in motion and Kelce in the slot with two of their speed guys in the WR role

image.png.f06370cfb0c24543140bd2a67a79022b.png

Please keep these football references going. Good content :)

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7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS with 4 distinct shortwaves to keep track up at hour 84, lol good luck. Forecasting this is like defending one of those Chiefs plays where they have Tyreek Hill in motion and Kelce in the slot with two of their speed guys in the WR role

image.png.f06370cfb0c24543140bd2a67a79022b.png

Oh, so you are saying its easy to do like the Bengals did.  Just sack Mahomes and throw darts to J'amarr Chase.  Problem solved! :D

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL's futurecast high res shows nothing Thursday night but mixed precip starting Friday morning.  Mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain according to their current forecast.
Points out european being more robust but american showing another round saturday.

When I think about the coverage area they have to account for there will be vast differences between say Goldsboro, Southern Pines, Roxboro and Rocky Mount.  Then there is Wake county.  They'd need to issue micro forecasts

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL's futurecast high res shows nothing Thursday night but mixed precip starting Friday morning.  Mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain according to their current forecast.
Points out european being more robust but american showing another round saturday.

Surprised to learn they even have a blue color on that thing. WRAL only believes we can receive mixed precip or rain.

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31 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Can we all stop gaslighting each other? It was exhausting last storm. We all want the same thing but someone has to lose when it happens. Whether you had snow an hour ago or 15 years ago, we’re all weather enthusiasts, so we’ll each want a storm at every turn. If we can’t land it in the west, I really do hope you folks down east get a good one. Everyone will have opportunities the pattern is loaded.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS! Keep the banter where it belongs. There wasn't half of the banter in the pinned discussion thread from the last system that there is in this thread and there is still 3-4 days to go. This will be the only verbal warning. 

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I feel like the models are struggling with these waves but the key is we stand in good shape to see at least a little something. As far as Raleigh I am thinking the low end is 1-3 inches but can't rule out more of a 4-8 event without question. Certainly I think we will see some pingers in there too.

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I feel like the models are struggling with these waves but the key is we stand in good shape to see at least a little something. As far as Raleigh I am thinking the low end is 1-3 inches but can't rule out more of a 4-8 event without question. Certainly I think we will see some pingers in there too.

Seems plausible, models seem to hint at a pretty good hit for snow where we are in far NE NC too, though I am wondering on the latest runs if the cold will be think enough for all snow. Seems to be a trend of the sleet/fzra encroaching a little further NW from the coast. Guess we shall see what plays out.

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Just now, jlh said:

Seems plausible, models seem to hint at a pretty good hit for snow where we are in far NE NC too, though I am wondering on the latest runs if the cold will be think enough for all snow. Seems to be a trend of the sleet/fzra encroaching a little further NW from the coast. Guess we shall see what plays out.

If anything the 18z GFS pushed the ZR a bit farther southeast and the main round of snow is in a much shorter period.

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51 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS with 4 distinct shortwaves to keep track up at hour 84, lol good luck. Forecasting this is like defending one of those Chiefs plays where they have Tyreek Hill in motion and Kelce in the slot with two of their speed guys in the WR role

image.png.f06370cfb0c24543140bd2a67a79022b.png

Spread  RPO , yet running a buck sweep

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