Tony Sisk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: It wasn’t Chris who posted it. One of the other mets at WYFF did. Maybe he had to approve it though first due to being chief met. Not sure. it was Parella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think I might die if Ukie verifies for south Hampton Roads. The most snow I've ever seen from a single storm was 8.8'' back in the January 10-11th, 2011 storm in Athens, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ya gotta kinda feel bad for DT. He sounded the horn, and all the models so far have said... nah... not happening lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NAM starts out as sleet here but looks to turn to snow with the 850s crashing fast. Where are you at brickSent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough. The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind. The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. game over as being, out of play...I think is what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate). It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..People pissed on him with this last one because he would say we were gonna get 50in....so he's screwed either way with snow weenies Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Can somebody call the NWS-CAE office in Columbia. They haven't put out a forecast since 3:38am and I am worries they are a victims of foul play. (The butler did it in study with the lead pipe.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Can somebody call the NWS-CAE office in Columbia. They haven't put out a forecast since 3:38am and I am worries they are a victims of foul play. (The butler did it in study with the lead pipe.)I already mentioned it two or three times this morning... I'm getting concerned too, but they might be waiting for the 12z EPS (which means no update until late this afternoon)Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Sounds like last storm at this lead time Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: ***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen One of our kiddos goes to St. David’s. I will have him say this in chapel tomorrow :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Canadian ensemble in much more agreement with other models….OP may have been an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Most models agreeing now and focusing the center on NE NC/SE VA just not on intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Would be high quality if the Euro comes and it digs its heels in on the more amplified solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Not even close honestly. The chances for western half of the state to see anything out of this are quickly dwindling, I don’t care what the euro says. When every other model is showing eastern storm and SE VA storm I don’t see all of them being that wrong. The last storm never had us in the west missing everything and down east getting the storm. It was always a foothills/Mtn storm on the models from a 7-9 days out, the earlier models just included the eastern part of the state getting in on it too. This is different. I wouldn't say our chances are quickly dwindling, GEFS mean has went from just over 2" last night to over 4" at 12z today. I think this thing has a ways to go before it is written off for anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Would be high quality if the Euro comes and it digs its heels in on the more amplified solution. Kind of what I'm expecting but wishcasting a jog of 850s further south and east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, DC2Winston said: Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled… Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, DC2Winston said: Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled… I would say the odds are greater than zero, but couldnt say how high they are. My suggestion would be to ask yourself how late can you make the decision to drive? Based on forecast uncertainty and how long it may take to iron things out, you may have to decide to drive before the forecast is more settled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, DC2Winston said: Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled… Nobody here is going to be able to give you that answer because the system is still many days away still and models are variable. Best thing you can do is revisit your cancellation policy and go from there as the possible event draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 TBH- for once in recent memory I feel like the the Triangle is in a good spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, DC2Winston said: Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled… If the plane makes it into GSO fine on Thursday night, then pretty good odds it will leave on Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro not digging as far SW... not a good sign so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Euro not digging as far SW... not a good sign so far... Not a good sign for us* Looking like a huge cave-job to the iNfErIoR GFS. Congrats, E NC you guys deserve one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro looking good to start Thursday for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Euro is leaving a little more energy back this go around in the southwest. Will prob be a bit further east this run. We may be seeing a bit model convergence this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: ***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen We may very easily get nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS might dethrone the Euro since it's been upgraded.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Still...not totally caving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now