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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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Just now, HKY_WX said:

The main diff  b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_14.png

I didn't really see that this time on 12z gfs.  The 12z euro going to be interesting to see how it continues to handle.

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***From Raleigh Perspective***
 

Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen 

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

***From Raleigh Perspective***
 

Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen 

This is comparable to those dallas fans I saw praying in the stands.  ;)

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47 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Cant believe Justus would post that graphic (possible 8" in upstate).  It's what got him in trouble in his earlier years, and really hurt his reputation..

I wasn't watching when this was posted on air, but surely it was meant to demonstrate the difficulty in forecasting due to such model disagreement, no?

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6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The main diff  b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_14.png

Gfs struggles in these situations.  

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On 1/14/2022 at 4:23 PM, Dunkman said:

They’re usually very conservative I’m happy to see those snow numbers so high after today’s runs.

 

48 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

30 - 50%?  That's pitiful.  Could the models be so inconsistent this close to a potential event because there's actually no event to occur?  

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12 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The main diff  b/n the euro and gfs is the EURO phases the northern stream impulse with the stj impulse over Texas below. If you see the GFS start trend towards a solution where that s/w is being phased into the northern trough then you know it's caving towards the EURO. Will be interesting to watch.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_14.png

Indeed:

 

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Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.

The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 

12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 

 

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One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. 

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