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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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GSP

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday: An active extended is in store as
models come into better agreement about a potent system entering
the eastern CONUS over the weekend.  Deterministic guidance is
struggling to handle the system consistently, with the last 2 runs
of the ECMWF finally converging on a strong cyclone affecting
the Carolinas, even as latest run of the GFS begins to diverge
from this solution. The CMC has consistently depicted a
solution in line with the latest ECMWF. Such a solution would
result in cyclogenesis along a stalled frontal boundary south
and east of the forecast area, in turn producing a cyclone that
shifts east too quickly to appreciably warm 850mb temps. So,
precipitation develops atop bitterly cold low-level air,
resulting in an all-snow solution throughout Friday night and
much of Saturday.

About 75% of GEFS members now depict some amount of wintry precip
occurring with this system, indicating the latest dry solution from
the deterministic run is an outlier; nonetheless, there remains
significant uncertainty with the timing and intensity of this
system, as well as what, if any, accumulations could be expected
should another winter system actual materialize.

In any case, the upper pattern becomes much less perturbed behind
this system, and cold, dry air builds in at the surface.  A weak
reinforcing cold front should arrive Monday evening, but looks
too dry to warrant any PoPs.
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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor.

What do you think of the step back from the 6z Control? Or do u put more stock in the 6z eps.?

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35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification.

It will not be huge because we're still days out, not really even in Winter Storm Watch range. From the looks of it though, seems like one hell of an ice storm for the Carolinas

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I am not seeing a big difference between the 0z EPS and the 6z EPS as far as Carolina interests are concerned. Nothing that isn't within the 'noise' range. 

It's definitely a little colder, but the resulting snow is largely unchanged. 

FJY1cb5WUAYRiVO.thumb.jpg.db71a246d5839349cb6feae389749896.jpg

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14 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It will not be huge because we're still days out, not really even in Winter Storm Watch range. From the looks of it though, seems like one hell of an ice storm for the Carolinas

Read back on Sunday where ROAB gets ingested more today

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I'll take my chances with this if I were in the triangle. That's a pretty classical SLP track for central/eastern NC. The upper air pattern with the late phase also sets the stage for a bombogenesis scenario over eastern NC where you can get caught up in the deformation axis and get some stupid totals.

ecmwf_T850_seus_fh96-120.gif

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