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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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Just now, burrel2 said:

comparing 12z Rgem and 00z CMC, the new rgem is has more fully incorporated the baja low and led to a much sharper trough. Gulf low already organizing off the texas coast as a result. 

Is the sharper trough good or bad?  Sorry still drinking coffee

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Just now, CaryWx said:

Is the sharper trough good or bad?  Sorry still drinking coffee

Good if you're worried about suppression and a weak/non-event for most.

Though the way things are trending I think i'm more concerned this thing winds up being too amped. The good thing is we're only 96hrs away so how much more drastically could it trend?

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Good if you're worried about suppression and a weak/non-event for most.

Though the way things are trending I think i'm more concerned this thing winds up being too amped. The good thing is we're only 96hrs away so how much more drastically could it trend?

Yeah, a big advantage to these type of setups is it's pretty easy to score a light to moderate snow event. A big hit, however is a bit more of a thread the needle scenerio. If a lp system develops along the boundary and deepens, it can bring in warm mid level air and cause mixing issues along the southern fringes. There is a fairly narrow jackpot zone, and the northern fringe struggles with dry air, but gets nice cold powder

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

@54 the Canadian looks very similar to that 12z run yesterday. Our Arizona energy looks a little weaker and I think it would be easy to get it to phase with our northern shortwave. Let's find out...

I'll pump the breaks and say @84 never mind. Too much separation. Another event coming but it won't be a kingmaker.

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