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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha, time for the role reversal. Trying to nail stuff in the Sus Valley has been extremely frustrating for me this winter. With this setup I’m only going to acknowledge the western half of PA has the best chance of seeing what could be significant snow (6+) for now. I do agree on the flash freeze potential and likely some kind of snow accumulation with a big time shot of cold being pulled into a very rapidly deepening coastal low. Models, especially the global ones have been too overzealous on the eastern edge of snow swaths so I’m taking some pause for this. The potential for a good snow event for everyone is there though. 

We have had a lot of issues - too far north, too far west, too far east, not cold enough, etc. I slightly disagree about today's event specific to my area regarding temps and rates. Heavier rates simply lowered my temp from the upper 30s (it was 38 and raining steadily when I left for work) to the mid 30s during the most intense periods of snow. If we would have been say 35-36 and fell to 33 or so, it would have been a different story. @CarlislePaWx was holding at 32.9 I believe for a good portion of the event - I'll be interested to hear how much QPF he had to see if he had more snow because he had lower temps and or higher QPF. 

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Here are CTP’s thoughts on the weekend.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 pm update... The highlight of this period will be the expected
winter storm Friday night and Saturday.

Still the customary model uncertainty with just how quickly
colder air pours into the region late Friday night and Saturday
morning, and how that timing meshes with the best
forcing/heaviest precipitation. The latest model consensus has
the highest chance for accumulating snow and perhaps locally
heavy (4-6"+) amounts north of I-80 and west of I-99. A tight
gradient in snowfall is likely south and east of these regions.
One factor that was noted in model guidance this far out, unlike
some other systems we`ve had this winter, is a very sharp rain
to snow transition and little in the way of either sleet or
freezing rain.

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha, time for the role reversal. Trying to nail stuff in the Sus Valley has been extremely frustrating for me this winter. With this setup I’m only going to acknowledge the western half of PA has the best chance of seeing what could be significant snow (6+) for now. I do agree on the flash freeze potential and likely some kind of snow accumulation with a big time shot of cold being pulled into a very rapidly deepening coastal low. Models, especially the global ones have been too overzealous on the eastern edge of snow swaths so I’m taking some pause for this. The potential for a good snow event for everyone is there though. 

It’s all good man. Glad you are getting some opps this year. Yeah the southern/eastern edge is what I was chatting about earlier. Things have adjusted north inside of 36 more than a few times of late. With no HP to help, my worry was that we didn’t have sufficient cold at lower levels. Couple that with the last minute adjustment north and here we are again.  Good luck this weekend. 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree, it was nice to see snow falling for most of the day, even though it didn’t add up to much in the LSV.

The grass & mulch & car tops were covered in northern Harrisburg and Marysville today.

Mrs. Blizz and the Blizz kids reported around 2 inches of snow on the grass and car tops at work & school near Duncannon today.

This could have easily been an Advisory event for most of the LSV if the radar would have cooperated early this am.

Oh well…on to Saturday!

I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday.  Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked.  Oh well. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday.  Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked.  Oh well. 

Where I grew up in Southern Lancaster county (about 600 feet) I remember several times each winter we would have snow on the ground during borderline events while at Penn Manor high school in Millersville (lower in elevation) would have rain or just wet snow.

Mt. Nebo and Martic Township, at their higher elevations, were even snowier. That area is a VERY unique microclimate that many people don't know about.

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CTP is ramping up their discussion today&&

“LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An impactful winter storm is on tap for the beginning half of the weekend. Precipitation enters the region from the northwest as rain and quickly overspreads PA beginning Friday night. The transition to snow in the northwest will be rather swift given the influx of frigid air. The tight temperature gradient associated with this system will lead to a mainly rain event in the southeast and an impactful winter event for the north, west, and central PA. The rain/snow transition zone will be located near and along the I-80/I-99 corridor with rain in the southeast and snow in the northwest. Given the vast amount of cold air that will plunge into the region swiftly, there is little likelihood that there will be any wintry mix or ice out of this system. The dominant precipitation types will be rain and snow. By Saturday afternoon, all of the Commonwealth transitions over to snow before tapering off by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow rates and SLRs are expected to be high, but the exact location of the heaviest banding of snow is still uncertain. Currently, the forecast has 6 to 8" in the northeast and 4 to 6" for much of the rest of the Commonwealth aside from the southeast, which will likely only see about an inch or two of snow. As snow starts to taper off on Saturday the wind is going to pick up and temperatures will tank. Gusts of 30+ mph combined with fresh dry snow will likely lead to drifting snow.”

 

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

I think Penndot dropped the ball here. I didn't see hide nor hair of a salt truck. at 5am was the closest i have come to wrecking without wrecking in my driving years. I-81 and all on/off ramps were horrible ice. I81 was like a demolition derby

Scary when that happens....loss of control.  Not just the car but ones well being. 

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I think Penndot dropped the ball here. I didn't see hide nor hair of a salt truck. at 5am was the closest i have come to wrecking without wrecking in my driving years. I-81 and all on/off ramps were horrible ice. I81 was like a demolition derby
Isn't 81 always a demolition derby? What was so different about today? A little ice? Lol

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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