Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

BGM

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
415 PM Update...
Rain will change over to mostly snow across the Finger Lakes
and along/north of the Thruway by dawn, and across an area
roughly north of the NY-17 to I-88 corridor by late morning,
with the cold front slowing down ahead of an incoming shortwave
trough. The shallower cold air will continue to slowly move
south and east, undercutting warmer air just aloft. This warm
nose will become more entrenched as low level (925-700mb) flow
backs more to the south. By late afternoon/early evening, snow
will still be the main precip type roughly north of the 17/88
corridor, with a zone of mixed precipitation extending into the
northern Tier of PA. The "battleground" (pardon the cliche) will
be across the Southern Tier of NY, where a sharp gradient in
snowfall amounts will end up taking shape. For example, some of
the higher end snowfall amounts (8 to 12 inches) will sneak into
northern Broome County, while the Tri-Cities will be in the mix
zone, potentially with an unusual amount of sleet. The cold
airmass moving in is fairly deep, with a freezing layer
extending upwards of 2000 to 3000 feet AGL, which favors
refreezing of precip (thus sleet vs freezing rain). The leading
edge of the colder air mass should become more shallow as it
slowly pushes south through complex terrain into NE PA Thursday
night. The risk of freezing rain will be greatest in NE PA and
into Sullivan County NY, but there is still considerable
uncertainty in the cold air depth, and its southern extent.
Parts of southern Luzerne County may not see freezing
temperatures until the tail end of the event, while areas
further north in Lackawanna and Wyoming Counties could tip over
to sleet. Somewhere in between, a narrow strip of freezing rain
amounts over a half inch are possible Thursday Night into
Friday morning.

For this reason, we`ve extended the Winter Storm Watch south and
east again, where the icing risk has increased, but where timing
is still on our side. We upgraded another row of counties in NY
to a warning, where time is getting short, and the precip
changeover will occur by midday tomorrow.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Lots of people minimizing this threat.  At some point, it's hard to ignore what the models are saying could happen.

I don't see how most of us can't end up with a WWA.  Isn't the criteria 0.10"+ of ice accrual?  Also, I absolutely would not rule out the ice developing on highways even after an inch of rain and temps in the 40s.  It's been darn cold here for over two weeks and many single digit lows.  The roads are not going to warm up sufficiently with one day of rain.  Maybe they stay on top of it on the major roads, but any secondary or local roads will be vulnerable to a rapid freeze.  It looks like the temp is going to drop below freezing around 5:00am.  That's almost 2 hours of darkness while these conditions develop.  I totally agree with you, @anotherman.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, unfortunately the GFS has kind of caved with this run at least as far as pure snow is concerned.

Here are the differences between yesterday's 18z output (imby) and today's...

Yesterday the total storm qpf was 2.12".  Today it is 1.83"

Yesterday the total freezing rain was 0.63".  Today it is 0.38".

Yesterday the total ice accrual was 0.50".  Today it is 0.33".

Yesterday the snow accumulation was 5".  Today it is 0.00".

Today's run has slowed down the arrival of the sub-freezing temperatures by over 3 hours.  Yesterday the freezing line reached me by 10:00pm.  Today it is 1:00am.

If this is how the end results play out I would still say that the GFS handled the storm very well.  I'm amazed at how consistent it's been going all the way back to Sunday.  Virtually every run from then until just now it has put out the same kind of precip distribution.  At least that's my own take for Carlisle.

Currently the temp is down to 36.0 degrees and the dew point is 31.0 degrees.  We know we're not going below freezing tonight.  I'm curious as to has far north the warm air makes it during the later part of tomorrow afternoon.

My very tenacious snowpack is still out in my back yard and still measures 2".  I can't see the top of the grass yet.  I really do not mind snowmelt when it occurs with sunshine and mild temperatures.  However, there is nothing worse than watching the white gold fade away while it's pouring rain out there with any temp over freezing.  The higher the temp the worse I feel...haha.  I'm fairly certain a new mantle will make it here before the end of winter.  As usual we just need to be patient.  Our turn will come.  PS>>I'm not saying this to make any of the snowless peeps feel any worse than they already do.  Obviously we can't control the weather and it will do whatever it wants regardless of how it affects us individually.  We all cash in eventually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Lots of people minimizing this threat.  At some point, it's hard to ignore what the models are saying could happen.

I will say that the people posting here (not MA) have just been discussing modeling with a combo of "past experiences".   I agree with the Lancaster people in wondering aloud if they see anything but minor ice. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I will say that the people posting here (not MA) have just been discussing modeling with a combo of "past experiences".   I agree with the Lancaster people in wondering aloud if they see anything but minor ice. 

Don't get me wrong, I hope none of the ice actually materializes.  I'm just not sure how we ignore it if GFS/NAM continue to double down.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per the HRRR, which I don't know how reliable it is at this range yet, I would be at 33 with plain rain at 6am when I roll out with the truck. At that time, I probably wouldn't be able to call the boss man and say the roads are bad and it's icy...because they probably won't be, so I'll have to roll, then get into the icy goods about an hour later. At this point, I hope the cold press is faster, and we go to ice about 3am, so that when I wake up, everything here is a skating rink, and I have a legitimate reason to stay home.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...