paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS still about 3" of snow on Friday I'll take getting white again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS = All Northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Seems to feel less warm today but already up to 41 at nooners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 12Z Modelled Temps at 12Z Friday AM (MDT) range from 22 to the 40's. Euro not in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 CTP's noon discussion for the LSV really downplays any zr. Says any frozen precip will be sleet (my grid says less than half inch of sleet/snow and a whooooole lot of rain). Key part of disco: Total snow/sleet accumulations of 6+ inches are most likely across the NW mtns where a winter storm warning is probably needed with the next forecast cycle. The remainder of the CWA looks advisory worthy - however a rain to heavy sleet (0.5-2") scenario followed by a freeze-up can be just as or even more impactful than a straight warning level snow accumulation. We are most concerned about this type of outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP's noon discussion for the LSV really downplays any zr. Says any frozen precip will be sleet (my grid says less than half inch of sleet/snow and a whooooole lot of rain). Key part of disco: Total snow/sleet accumulations of 6+ inches are most likely across the NW mtns where a winter storm warning is probably needed with the next forecast cycle. The remainder of the CWA looks advisory worthy - however a rain to heavy sleet (0.5-2") scenario followed by a freeze-up can be just as or even more impactful than a straight warning level snow accumulation. We are most concerned about this type of outcome. Thanks good discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Seems to feel less warm today but already up to 41 at nooners. Temp spiked at home from 29 to 41 in 75 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: GFS still about 3" of snow on Friday I'll take getting white again I'm telling ya....its out to score a coupe, or it has an affinity for eatin crow. I really like that its eekin south again (so did NAM) as well as shows a quicker changeover here. Hoping the Euro comes in a bit better as well and we might actually have more than consolation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I'm telling ya....its out to score a coupe, or it has an affinity for eatin crow. I really like that its eekin south again (so did NAM) as well as shows a quicker changeover here. Hoping the Euro comes in a bit better as well and we might actually have more than consolation snows. Yep GFS has been consistent all along. NAM is getting there. Definitely will be fun or not fun watching the EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Temp spiked at home from 29 to 41 in 75 minutes. today was the day that it should. I've got nothing to lose at home (well a 10' patch in backyard), so NBD for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep GFS has been consistent all along. NAM is getting there. Definitely will be fun or not fun watching the EURO 6z nooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: 6z nooner Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z 850s nooner's. Now that's what I call a tick.. Is it enough...not sure, but headed in right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I feel like MAG, KTX, and myself are going to be in a weird spot with this one being not far enough NW to get the good stuff but not east and south enough for all the liquid. It's tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I feel like MAG, KTX, and myself are going to be in a weird spot with this one being not far enough NW to get the good stuff but not east and south enough for all the liquid. It's tough to tell. You should be in ICE Heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I feel like MAG, KTX, and myself are going to be in a weird spot with this one being not far enough NW to get the good stuff but not east and south enough for all the liquid. It's tough to tell. You'll have the least amount of taint and less duration in liquid form IMO. SW winds no matter where SLP is below us, are still SW winds. Frontal boundary, as I've said all along, is the key to victory for all. The quicker it gets here is time we dont lose to taint....and its all about the taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 6z 850s nooner's. Now that's what I call a tick.. Is it enough...not sure, but headed in right direction. Yes a tick GFS is still leading the way. And in most cases when I get my hopes up for these types of events it is usually failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 As of 12:30 pm the sun is out, occasional very light breeze, the temp is hovering just under 41 and it feels like what I always expect mid/late March to feel like. (I’m often disappointed in mid/late March because it feels much colder and more blustery than this) I wouldn’t call it “spring like”, exactly, but it’s mild. The K9 companion emphatically approves. I think this is me coming down with Spring Fever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Streak said: As of 12:30 pm the sun is out, occasional very light breeze, the temp is hovering just under 41 and it feels like what I always expect mid/late March to feel like. (I’m often disappointed in mid/late March because it feels much colder and more blustery than this) I wouldn’t call it “spring like”, exactly, but it’s mild. The K9 companion emphatically approves. I think this is me coming down with Spring Fever After the deep cold of late (especially the mins), its hard not to feel good on a day like today. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Temp 39 Cloudy no sun yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Streak said: As of 12:30 pm the sun is out, occasional very light breeze, the temp is hovering just under 41 and it feels like what I always expect mid/late March to feel like. (I’m often disappointed in mid/late March because it feels much colder and more blustery than this) I wouldn’t call it “spring like”, exactly, but it’s mild. The K9 companion emphatically approves. I think this is me coming down with Spring Fever Just went out for a lunchtime walk around our campus. I'm a cold guy but it feels really good. After a month of lots of cold and little snow...yeah, this is something to look forward to in the coming weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Yes a tick GFS is still leading the way. And in most cases when I get my hopes up for these types of events it is usually failure. What are surface temps on those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Temp 39 Cloudy no sun yet wow, its bright as can be down here in brownville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: What are surface temps on those maps? Crashing............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: What are surface temps on those maps? I'm not sure sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Euro is running....warm at this time tomorrow but that is not when the ice threat was anyway. Flooding rain near the LSV tomorrow evening (street flooding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Temp spiked at home from 29 to 41 in 75 minutes. 45 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 am EURO Changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Temps at 7AM on the Euro with light frz through much of the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The low stays pretty far south this run I would expect more ice/snow with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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