mahantango#1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Dt has first guess map out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That has not worked out so well as of late. Noted. For you to be criticizing the CMC it has to be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Noted. For you to be criticizing the CMC it has to be pretty bad. The little I have looked lately, it seems the CMC always stirs up hope in the MR, when others are not showing anything, but then the hope goes away and its forgotten. Maybe just a personal impression though as I have been stepping away a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: What in God’s name is that start times map? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: That start time map has to go into his classic "What the" hall of fame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lifted from MA. This guy is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The little I have looked lately, it seems the CMC always stirs up hope in the MR, when others are not showing anything, but then the hope goes away and its forgotten. Maybe just a personal impression though as I have been stepping away a bit. GFS had that storm on the 0z run and has carried it on the following runs. I would never put any stock in something that was only at hour 240 of the CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This storm takes me back to the days of growing up watching I 95 be a snow globe every winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Dt has first guess map out. What does it look like? Richmond 3FT LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: This storm takes me back to the days of growing up watching I 95 be a snow globe every winter lol. No matter how much snow, it is still I95 so they would need to get 300" a month to make up for having that handicap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: What in God’s name is that start times map? I made the 2" line I am all in with DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, paweather said: I made the 2" line I am all in with DT What is your start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: What is your start time? I’m getting 2” as well, but I don’t have a start time. Not sure how that works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I’m getting 2” as well, but I don’t have a start time. Not sure how that works. It will get there when it damn well pleases? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 24 minutes ago, Festus said: Lifted from MA. This guy is pretty good. This is pretty close to what I think happens - not sure 1" gets to halfway through Lancaster County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What is your start time? I can't follow his map LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, Festus said: Lifted from MA. This guy is pretty good. "Pretty good" is an understatement. Comparing his maps (not just clarity, but accuracy) to DT is night and day better - I fully expect the 0" that he's predicting for me. DT has the 4" line halfway through Lanco? Don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Festus said: Lifted from MA. This guy is pretty good. This looks very reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Eastern Massachusetts just got NAM'ed with 40" on the 18z haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Eastern Massachusetts just got NAM'ed with 40" on the 18z haha. It's crazy looking at the differences between the parent NAM and 3km version in central Mass, CT.... A 3 foot discrepancy, yeeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonesy56 said: It's crazy looking at the differences between the parent NAM and 3km version in central Mass, CT.... A 3 foot discrepancy, yeeesh. I see that haha. Good lord that's outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 MU Weather going with a far eastern solution.... He also adds this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Eastern Massachusetts just got NAM'ed with 40" on the 18z haha. Models have realllllllllly jumped around for SNE/NE the past day. And still are. Wild differences - if that was here we'd all be exhausted from fatigue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 The RDPS is the one model that has consistently wanted to bring 3-6" to Lancaster County, and does so again at 18z. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm thinking my daughter and I might go on our first storm chase trip. Scouting out a nice Holiday Inn Express with an indoor pool outside of AC. Although I have a feeling if I go down tomorrow, I am going to be there until Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18Z GFS. Well, hello there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: That’s gotta be the most confusing start time map I’ve ever seen. The SE quarter of PA got 4/5 start times criss crossing and whatever snow develops there tomorrow is gonna be starting way earlier than all of them lol. I really haven’t been a big fan of this storm threat in our region and just figures that it came back west enough a couple days ago to have to acknowledge the possibility. Although, I felt that the best chance of success was going to hinge on the developing wave of snow with the northern system and frontal boundary and if the storm phased early enough that the coastal wave could keep snow going for a time in the Sus Valley and eastern PA and provide a respectable event. The now presumed later explosive development of the coastal mostly takes that away and we’re left mainly with what the initial wave of snow can do, which will be during the day tomorrow. I’ll note that I’m not going to rule out York/Lancaster (and far eastern PA) catching some of the deform shield from the coastal. At any rate…. Initially the SW flow makes for the downsloping shadow east of the mountains seen on the higher res models but eventually precipitation does generate further east in PA as the coastal low starts taking shape and you start getting some easterly flow. So there will be flakes to be had probably for most of us late tonight thru tomorrow (west to east) but big question will be how much it will amount to. Models like the 3k NAM, RGEM, and the HRRR do show something, with the RGEM being the best showing a more widespread 1-2” with a bit more in York/Lancaster since it’s been pretty far inside with the coastal. So a general light snowfall is still on the table, but we’ll see how well this northern branch system does. There’s already precip in western PA from it and I’m about to get some echoes overhead (though I’m dry with a 28ºF temp and 9ºF dewpoint) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS catching on to ramping up storm further south and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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