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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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CTP changing its tune better hoist WSW :D

Thursday Night
A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are already plowing at the 84 hour point. 

 

All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows

To me, it's the key here vs. hoping for this to track along the coast.  

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2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

LOL.  When the central/northern posters start throwing out the congrats for the southern crew at 90 hours out, that's a great sign it's not done trending!

The reverse physiology and self sustaining feel goodness posts of AMWx.  Ha.  Every "at least we are still tracking it" post falls under this category as well.    

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The eastern third of PA is very much in the game for direct impacts from the coastal low, and for the state as a whole it may not be the all or nothing proposition it was looking like a few days ago if the coastal ultimately develops too far east for most in here. Models are pretty solid now on showing general snowfall developing across most the state Friday as the phasing northern energy drops down and attending arctic boundary presses. I Mentioned this in two posts on Sunday, even on the first post during the day when the coastal aspect of this wasn’t anywhere near close to C-PA and I was still skeptical on a bigger storm happening at all. If the coastal trends closer like the Euro this setup could help in terms of a more expansive precip shield (even though the axis of heaviest would probably tend to be just east of most of the subforum)

What’s ultimately changed is the timeframe of this phasing occurring (faster). This was really well explained in the Mount Holly AFD that was shared in here first thing this morning. The faster ejection and phase presumably keeps the western ridge axis in a much more favorable positioning for us and not too far east. This is what changed the game with this and now that all the models are on board for the bigger storm happening this could absolutely trend better. We’ve been running a progressive pattern so it wouldn’t be too much to see this speed up a bit more. It also could trend back the wrong way too, let me be clear. The shortwave timing is very important.

At any rate, for any thought of the Euro being over amped the 18z NAM in “guru” range said hold my beer lol. There was a large difference between 12z Euro at 90 and the 18z NAM at 84hr.

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