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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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I_nw_EST_2022012512_096.png

I know we haven't gotten the trends we've needed on the last couple of systems, but this is still really close for 96 hours out.  If it were 48 hours fine, I'd punt.  Trends have been west today, but also a little faster to develop the storm south of us.  All positives so far.  Can we bring the energy for 12Z Euro??

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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I_nw_EST_2022012512_096.png

I know we haven't gotten the trends we've needed on the last couple of systems, but this is still really close for 96 hours out.  If it were 48 hours fine, I'd punt.  Trends have been west today, but also a little faster to develop the storm south of us.  All positives so far.  Can we bring the energy for 12Z Euro??

It is soooooooo close to being something bigger for us.  Let's just hope the trends continue instead of going the wrong way like late yesterday.

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Kinda thinking of driving to downeast Main to chase this one. It's a HECS for SNE. 

Yeah I know they too are a bit starved.  Good for them.  Friends were sledding in NY 2 weekends ago and said it sucked.  Really feel for those that rely on the snow biz.

 

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9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It is soooooooo close to being something bigger for us.  Let's just hope the trends continue instead of going the wrong way like late yesterday.

at 5 days out (yesterday), these kinds wobbles are normal.  Unfortunately the wobbles havent gone our way this year..lol

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55 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

For those that still want to track....

RGEM and NAM dont look horrible for Friday.  Were I to extrapolate, HH Friday night has it snowing for eastern 1/2 of state as arctic boundary approaches and looks to interact w/ coastal.  Does coastal pop n save us...dunno, but like I said, its something.

I'm tracking. I'm actually more fully invested than normal, but time is not kind to me posting much these days. 

One thing I'll add to the discussion - regarding the coastal, east is better than west. My caution; and this is being said to me as well as to the rest, is that we do NOT want to be on the western periphery of the snow maps. History has shown that riding the edge leads to heartache. For those of us east of the river, we'll want to see good snows extend well west of us to feel confident - again, this is specific to the coastal and pinning hopes with that. I do think that chances of some snow is becoming more likely regardless of that, though. :) 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm tracking. I'm actually more fully invested than normal, but time is not kind to me posting much these days. 

One thing I'll add to the discussion - regarding the coastal, east is better than west. My caution; and this is being said to me as well as to the rest, is that we do NOT want to be on the western periphery of the snow maps. History has shown that riding the edge leads to heartache. For those of us east of the river, we'll want to see good snows extend well west of us to feel confident - again, this is specific to the coastal and pinning hopes with that. I do think that chances of some snow is becoming more likely regardless of that, though. :) 

Sorry to hear your are tied, up.  We'll try to reel it in for ya.

Not sure what you mean wrt coastal being east tho.  Verbatim its still quite a fish storm at our latitude.  We need it to tuck in a bit more which throws the wester QPF back to CTP and gives you and i the wiggle room I think you are talking bout.

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CMC at 90-96 is slightly quicker and NNE w/ SLP.

at 96 it now has qpf into Allentown and I'm likely smokin cirrus.  It really bombs out and is east of GFS SLP. 

Its in line w/ other nooners, and if nothing helps, narrows goalposts a bit.  Didnt hurt the trends of today. 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Sorry to hear your are tied, up.  We'll try to reel it in for ya.

Not sure what you mean wrt coastal being east tho.  Verbatim its still quite a fish storm at our latitude.  We need it to tuck in a bit more which throws the wester QPF back to CTP and gives you and i the wiggle room I think you are talking bout.

LOL, I'm sorry...bad choice of wording on my part! "East is better" = living in the EASTERN part of PA will give us a better chance of getting snow from the coastal than areas west of us. 

Hopefully that makes more sense now. :) 

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