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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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20 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

2016 snowstorm anniversary, only snow we had that winter if I remember correctly.

 

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This was my grid forecast as of 10 am January 22, 2016. Turns out it was an epic, historic “bust” - I doubled what their high end forecast called for lol. The NAM completely nailed that storm, it was wild. This is going to sound weird but it was actually too much snow. I hope to never see 30” again in one 24 hour window again.  

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

This was my grid forecast as of 10 am January 22, 2016. Turns out it was an epic, historic “bust” - I doubled what their high end forecast called for lol. The NAM completely nailed that storm, it was wild. This is going to sound weird but it was actually too much snow. I hope to never see 30” again in one 24 hour window again.  

0381A8BF-602D-44EC-95C9-1CA7D230A709.jpeg.7fd3ef81839164cdfb4a0a85b0795abf.jpeg

This was one of the worst storms that I've ever been through lol. I got 4 or 5 inches of light pixie dust over hours while areas 50 miles to my south got a foot and a half.

I'll gladly take your 30 inches.

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32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Nice shift for the day 6/7 threat 

Here was the comparison between the 18z and the 12z. This things only beginning to materialize by the 144hr timeframe which is as far out as the 18z Euro EPS and control goes. 

                                            18z                                                                                                                 12z

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I’m intrigued by the timeframe to be sure but I’m not jumping gung ho on this threat until I see some more consistency on the operational guidance and ensemble guidance to start reeling the mean back towards the coast line. Ensembles have been seeing it to a degree but everything (GEFS, Euro EPS, CMC ens) is generally way to far out to sea to have us in the game for anything. Still pretty far out in range though, like I mentioned I think yesterday the storm last week really didn’t start showing consistently until it was around D5-6 and the pattern also makes it hard to see threats even in the medium range with the progression and lots of moving parts. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

This was my grid forecast as of 10 am January 22, 2016. Turns out it was an epic, historic “bust” - I doubled what their high end forecast called for lol. The NAM completely nailed that storm, it was wild. This is going to sound weird but it was actually too much snow. I hope to never see 30” again in one 24 hour window again.  

0381A8BF-602D-44EC-95C9-1CA7D230A709.jpeg.7fd3ef81839164cdfb4a0a85b0795abf.jpeg

I had a Hazleton to Weyer's Cave VA run the Monday after that storm. I ran down I-81 of course and ran through Martinsburg, WV where they had over 40 inches. The three lane interstate was barely open one lane in spots. I have a video on YouTube of my trip that day.

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27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I had a Hazleton to Weyer's Cave VA run the Monday after that storm. I ran down I-81 of course and ran through Martinsburg, WV where they had over 40 inches. The three lane interstate was barely open one lane in spots. I have a video on YouTube of my trip that day.

I remember that video vividly actually. It was a fun one. Your excitement over our pain after shoveling all that was fun lol. 

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I had a Hazleton to Weyer's Cave VA run the Monday after that storm. I ran down I-81 of course and ran through Martinsburg, WV where they had over 40 inches. The three lane interstate was barely open one lane in spots. I have a video on YouTube of my trip that day.

47 minutes ago, canderson said:

I remember that video vividly actually. It was a fun one. Your excitement over our pain after shoveling all that was fun lol. 

For those who haven't seen it, here it is...

 

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Here is the CTP Expected snow for the Clipper today. 

Here is their forecast for Harrisburg.

Today
Light snow likely, mainly between 1pm and 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Southwest wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 
Tonight
A chance of light snow, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

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Here is CTP forecast discussion on the Clipper today.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Focus later today remains on approaching Alberta Clipper, which
is progged to track east along the Mason Dixon Line between
22Z-04Z. Typical of clippers, this system will lack significant
moisture, so expect its associated shield of warm advection snow
to be light. However, model time sections support fairly high
snow/water ratios, with maximum lift occurring within the
dendritic growth zone. Latest mean WPC snow/water ratios are
near 18/1.

RAP 850-700mb fgen fields, which correlate well with the
heaviest snow currently falling over the midwest, indicate the
corridor of steadiest snow will fall along the I-80 corridor
this afternoon into early evening. Latest HREF mean qpf in this
region is around 0.1 inches, supporting a band of around 2
inches of snow along I-80. Orographic enhancement is likely to
result in amounts around 3 inches along the spine of the
Appalachians, but don`t think coverage supports an advisory.

Elsewhere, weaker forcing is indicated over the Lower Susq
Valley, where POPs are significantly lower and any snow accums
will likely be limited to a dusting. As for timing, near term
model guidance indicates the light snow will develop first
across the northwest mountains during the late morning hours,
then rapidly overspread much of central Pa during the early
afternoon.

 

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