Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Finished with a whopping tenth of an inch here. Models were actually pretty good with qpf depiction but couldn't peg the cold air arrival time. Surface temps just never allowed for efficient accumulation. Now we prepare for the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Anything on the models to look at? Some of them have some nice tits. Oh, you meant weather models. My bad. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: NWS can say they verified.....lol Very nice.....very jealous. Enjoy Its a different world up there. I’d love to relocate up top but it’s mostly state game lands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Embiid 50 points in 27 minutes WOW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Morning all. First look around this morning and I see all trees with a very light coating of white. Same for sidewalks but not the street. Last night around 9pm I got on here and said I had dropped to 29.1 degrees and was feeling pretty good about accumulation chances. Well that drop turned out to be a big tease as the temp started going back up again and by midnight I was up to 31.6. This morning I see that at some point during the night I shot all the way up to 36 like many of you also did. I haven't measured the rain gauge yet but my automated gauge is reading 0.10". That would be mostly rain before the changeover. I'm going to record 0.3" of new snow based on the board and trees. Fortunately I still have a solid base of between 2.5 to 3.0" which should be enough to enhance any radiational cooling we see here over the next few night. I'm hoping to see zero Saturday morning. >>Forgot to mention that clearing skies are progressing southward from the north. The sun is about to come out within the next 10 minutes. My temp is back down to 31.6. Yesterday the models showed temps continuing to drop down through the 20's with mid 20's by sundown. Let's see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Icon is getting closer for next Tues. NS got way out in front, and its now riding the boundary..but its close enough to add to the "watch list". Would be great to see the GFS hold its look. We'll know in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Icon is getting closer for next Tues. NS got way out in front, and its now riding the boundary..but its close enough to add to the "watch list". Would be great to see the GFS hold its look. We'll know in a bit. I'm going to assume the GFS didn't agree. Haven't had a chance to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 GFS has snow on Tuesday another WWA event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: At least we have something to track. Yep we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Does this come up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Does this come up the coast? If it does, that's the pattern buster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 55 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Day 5/6 Icon ejects the sw from the southwest and keeps it somewhat intact as it approaches us . Southern Pa gets some snow this run . Most guidance is shearing that sw out alot as it moves east . I'll be watching the trends . Ninjd ...if only I could type on my phone fast like young people I'm older than you pal......I'm just good...(kiddin) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Was just at a clients in Lawn (yes, that's the town...no typo) and its almost snowglobish out there. I'll drive slowly on way home, so I get my snow fix in. Nooner GFS looks decentish for Tues. A little diff in how it gets there, but it gets snow up here. Hoping the SS SLP can keep its act together. You can see it pop off VA coast, but still has a progressive NS and it scoots NE from there. ENS not really seeing what the Op sees, so keep that in back of your mind as we "track" this one. I'd say it presents more like an overrunning deal. We'll see, but some of us don't really care if maps look perfect....we just want snow, so I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 CMC wants none of what the GFS is tokin on. SE slider theme continues if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Inland runner @324 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Was just at a clients in Lawn (yes, that's the town...no typo) and its almost snowglobish out there. I'll drive slowly on way home, so I get my snow fix in. Nooner GFS looks decentish for Tues. A little diff in how it gets there, but it gets snow up here. Hoping the SS SLP can keep its act together. You can see it pop off VA coast, but still has a progressive NS and it scoots NE from there. ENS not really seeing what the Op sees, so keep that in back of your mind as we "track" this one. I'd say it presents more like an overrunning deal. We'll see, but some of us don't really care if maps look perfect....we just want snow, so I'll take it. From Wiki: "Lawn, previously known as Roseland, is an unincorporated community in South Londonderry Township in Lebanon County, Pennsylvania, United States. Lawn is located at the intersection of Pennsylvania Route 241 and Lawn Road." I want the story on who got pissed at the Roselands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Holy cow, what a beast on the GFS at day #9 - yeah, fantasy land an all of that, but if the pattern is going to break down as advertised, that would be the way to do it. If this verified - I'd call it a winter: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, canderson said: From Wiki: "Lawn, previously known as Roseland, is an unincorporated community in South Londonderry Township in Lebanon County, Pennsylvania, United States. Lawn is located at the intersection of Pennsylvania Route 241 and Lawn Road." I want the story on who got pissed at the Roselands. LOL. Thanks for the read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, paweather said: Inland runner @324 We can lock that one in I'm sure.... Starting to look like a year where clean n simple aint gonna work...gonna need to get creative w/ shoehorns n curveballs to get it done. Ughh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Place your bets..... GFS - close enough to throw down some house money.... Euro - taps table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Shit models can even get a 12 hour for set right. Woke up to no snow at all I'm done watching , long range forecasts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ruin said: Shit models can even get a 12 hour for set right. Woke up to no snow at all I'm done watching , long range forecasts lol lol. Step away from the ledge....its just weather.... Not every year is an easy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The forecast today was all off. Mesos yesterday killed real snow in the LSV north of 30. Temps were supposed to crash today but I'm up to 37, forecast was to fall to the 20s this afternoon with a high below freezing. I haven't been below freezing since yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, canderson said: The forecast today was all off. Mesos yesterday killed real snow in the LSV north of 30. Temps were supposed to crash today but I'm up to 37, forecast was to fall to the 20s this afternoon with a high below freezing. I haven't been below freezing since yesterday morning. The arctic front was slower moving through, which means that the front won't move as far south as originally thought, which means the Saturday storm will end up much farther NW than modeled resulting in snow here. And that...is my all out weenie wishcast post of the year. Actually, it does look like the next storm is coming farther NW. Problem is, we needed a 600 mile adjustment, which is just a WEE bit much 36 hours out. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, canderson said: The forecast today was all off. Mesos yesterday killed real snow in the LSV north of 30. Temps were supposed to crash today but I'm up to 37, forecast was to fall to the 20s this afternoon with a high below freezing. I haven't been below freezing since yesterday morning. And they closed school here for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Friday night has the potential to be a really cold morning not seen the last couple winters. Looking at models today everything is cold, but Euro looks like it’s envisioning an ideal radiational cooling night. I saw this shared in the Upstate NY thread, but interesting take from BGM Quote Friday night is starting to show the hallmarks of an extremely cold night under Arctic high pressure. Though model guidance is already quite low for minimum temperatures, this is a situation in which guidance typically struggles to keep up. The atmospheric column will be extremely dry, to the point that model precipitable water value values are just three to six hundredths of an inch; it simply just does not ever get lower than that around here. This along with snow on the ground should promote ideal radiational cooling, and there is concern that the bottom could really fall out for temperatures. Our forecast has large majority of the area reaching well below zero; in many cases by double digits. This already skews below most guidance, but it should be noted that there is at least a chance for some locations to hit 20 below. The biggest point of uncertainty, is whether a system shooting well offshore the Midatlantic Coast, could manage to yield a thin veil of high cirrus towards the Poconos-Catskills along with a strong upper jet maximum zipping through. If so, that would at least somewhat hold back the radiational cooling for the southeastern zones. Winds under high pressure will be light/variable to calm, so wind chill per se is not the issue here compared to just the straight up frigid temperatures. Considering how cold the prior 24 hours will have already been, we could see frozen pipe issues in addition to the typical exposure risk posed by extreme cold, as well as further buildup of ice in the rivers. Seeing the whole area under PWAT’s of 3-5 HUNDREDTHS of an inch is pretty nuts. For reference that’s about 10-15% of the average PWAT value this time of the year, which is already about the coldest/driest time of the year climo wise. When the atmosphere is that dry, it presents the opportunity that if winds calm and the surface decouples, temps at least in local favored rad cooling spots could nosedive. So I don’t know if the Euro’s widespread significantly below zero temps comes the whole way to fruition but I can easily see some of the favorite rad cooling spots in the central counties bottom out at -10 to -15. And up north I wouldn’t be surprised at a -20. Even spots in the Lower Sus Valley where most of the pack was lost may undercut guidance and get near 0 or a couple degrees below. But we’ll see if we can get the clear skies and calm winds to maximize that potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And they closed school here for this event. hahahah that's fantastic - a pretty day for kids to be outside though! Not too cold at all in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, canderson said: The forecast today was all off. Mesos yesterday killed real snow in the LSV north of 30. Temps were supposed to crash today but I'm up to 37, forecast was to fall to the 20s this afternoon with a high below freezing. I haven't been below freezing since yesterday morning. Wait...you're at 37? I'm at 29.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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