Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Nam is a good hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, canderson said: Better than hot and wet. I beg to differ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, anotherman said: I don’t necessarily mean this weekend. I just think threats will show up in the medium range but it won’t be apparent when that will be. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Adam's county bullseye . Warning level lol. If we get the temps to cooperate I think Cashtown may classify this as a plowable. Surface temps are 32-34 during the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Voyager said: I beg to differ... Come on guys, let's get back to weather! (Snark-joking) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we get the temps to cooperate I think Cashtown may classify this as a plowable. Surface temps are 32-34 during the height. If only. I’d be happy with a 2-4” event then all the cold to keep a snow pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 @canderson @Candetson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we get the temps to cooperate I think Cashtown may classify this as a plowable. Surface temps are 32-34 during the height. Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps? The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins. For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon. With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start. I think near the projected amounts are doable. BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps? The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins. For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon. With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start. I think near the projected amounts are doable. BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps? The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins. For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon. With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start. I think near the projected amounts are doable. BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch. I did not go hour by hour but I am seeing the info differently. Here are the 7AM temps. I am looking at 12K not 3K right now. Most of the LSV does not drop into the 20's until 10AMish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @canderson @Candetson Most of those pipes all busted last february so it's new infrastructure at least ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, paweather said: Literally nothing is welcoming me back home We are........... does that help? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, canderson said: Most of those pipes all busted last february so it's new infrastructure at least ... That much frz would cause area wide power outages but the Nam has slipped up on overstating frz lately so certainly not a forgone conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: I only looked at 3k temps and timing . Temps quickly get to low 30s then upper 20s during precip and perfect timing before sunrise start . I think that was the difference between where I was looking and you/Carlisle. Either way my comment about "if we can get them to cooperate" was open to them cooperating vs saying they would not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We are........... does that help? Absolutely! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Adam's county bullseye . Warning level lol. You forgot that one must divide by 2 first. I'll take 2.6 and be fine w/ it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I did not go hour by hour but I am seeing the info differently. Here are the 7AM temps. I am looking at 12K not 3K right now. Most of the LSV does not drop into the 20's until 10AMish. I'm not trying to be picky. The 18z has the precip arriving a little bit earlier than 12z did...looking like start time between 1 and 2. It actually doesn't stop the precip until 9am. At 4am temps are very close to 32 for most of us and your map up there shows me to be 30 at 7am and i said i was 29 because I was referencing the 12z data. I'm certainly willing to agree that perhaps the first tenth of an inch of qpf is not frozen. Obviously things are changing rather quickly with each run. Regardless, 18z is way better than any prior run on the 12k. 3k is not agreeing very well with 12k, however. But HRRR is closer to 12k than 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Have you gone hour by hour through this event with surface temps? The NAM has the temps between 32-34 right at the start around 4am, but at 5am the temps have dropped to 29, and that's when the major portion of the precip begins. For most of us the forecast high for tomorrow is low 40's for a few hours in the afternoon. With the incredibly cold ground there should be almost no loss of qpf at the start. I think near the projected amounts are doable. BTW, I'm not saying that the much higher amounts at 18z will happen, I just think that nearly all the qpf will be snow and it will stick, even if it's just an inch. We all approve of your logic.... Sound....very sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Most of those pipes all busted last february so it's new infrastructure at least ... My Mo in Law winters just south of that green blob, like 15 miles from Mexico border. If I share this with her, she might take me out of the will (after thinking about it....I'm not sure I'm in it ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 @Bubbler86...look at it this way...I was trying to be more like @Blizzard of 93, and less like @paweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: @Bubbler86...look at it this way...I was trying to me more like @Blizzard of 93, and less like @paweather. Thanks! Thats fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm not trying to be picky. The 18z has the precip arriving a little bit earlier than 12z did...looking like start time between 1 and 2. It actually doesn't stop the precip until 9am. At 4am temps are very close to 32 for most of us and your map up there shows me to be 30 at 7am and i said i was 29 because I was referencing the 12z data. I'm certainly willing to agree that perhaps the first tenth of an inch of qpf is not frozen. Obviously things are changing rather quickly with each run. Regardless, 18z is way better than any prior run on the 12k. 3k is not agreeing very well with 12k, however. But HRRR is closer to 12k than 3k. I am fine with any model disco so no issues on being picky. I just looked and thought it was close so my comment was basically "If we can get them work with us, we would have a good snow" vs. they are not working. The GFS was in the mid 30's when it started so not much room to spare if they are a tad warmer. Fingers crossed we score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Good luck with Happy Hour GFS let's hope for a big win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've read from at least 5-6 mets that as the strength of Thursday morning's wave continues to increase, it in turn is having a negative impact on the weekend event. Hopefully the narrow ribbon of goods early Thursday jackpots our forum because if we're on the outside looking in with that wave, it might very well be 0-2 around here soon. its all in the spacing. 18z has a slightly better look. The bigger Thurs gets, the less room for amplification for your storm. While normally I'd sacrifice small in hopes for bigger, Thurs, likelys gets us looking like winter. Gonna be hard for me to root against it. But I'm just being greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS has a big daddy storm 959mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looking at 258-264 will likely get the cringe factor going again. Past weekend redux, only larger. Westers will need avalanche beacons to go get groceries....I'd need a boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS has a big daddy storm 959mb lol Haven't I seen that map recently?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Haven't I seen that map recently?... I get the eye again. What a storm that would be. The wind would be insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Haven't I seen that map recently?... You know what? I'll take it lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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