Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

There’s 3” out this way but it’s a true glacier.  I’m driving car on top without breaking through.   1” of qpf locked in 

I've got about 1.5" here. It'll disappear tomorrow for sure. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Fair enough, I had no idea there was that much of a discrepancy. You caught me off guard because you're usually positive and I'm the one throwing the less-rosy posts around. 

All good....

All good...

While I'm generally positive, I'd say I'm more of a realist that looks for silver..(or white) linings. 

My deck of cards is rather diminished, and bluffing rarely goes nowhere in this game, but I still have a pile of chips to play w/ (time wise). 

I'm sure you know my area.  From firetowers North of Brickerville, its winter....come south to Ephrata, it was rather painful how quick and how much it eroded last evening.  Is what it is.  

[paweather]

This is actually not bad

[Bubbler86]

24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

There’s 3” out this way but it’s a true glacier.  I’m driving car on top without breaking through.   1” of qpf locked in 

It's going to take a beating tomorrow but my road is still a solid sheet of ice. 

[pawatch]

This is something.

Bub everything currently froze solid up here.

[Itstrainingtime]

If the GFS and others don't make a move with the weekend system at 12z, my storm will be on life support. Right now it's on...life support. Still think the setup could provide southerners with a moderate snowfall. 

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If the GFS and others don't make a move with the weekend system at 12z, my storm will be on life support. Right now it's on...life support. Still think the setup could provide southerners with a moderate snowfall. 

Been crazy busy this AM but saw some of the 6Z Euro stuff had backed down from the more amped up solution and moved to more of a slider.  I think the EPS Control was one. 

[Voyager]

I don't need this. I was told by the guy that plows where I load that if we keep getting snow, chains will be required to get in, and especially, out of the loading location. The boss isn't keen on the idea, and with two bum shoulders, I couldn't throw truck iron even if I was willing to.

So, I don't know what the future of this particular run is going to hold going forward if we stay cold and snowy... 

[Atomixwx]

Looking at the projected highs, I can't see a scenario in which suppression isn't a major complication. Upshot up here is there's plenty of snow locked in that whatever survives tomorrow will be here for a while. 

Likely will require the pattern-breaker to deliver any foreseeable goods. 

[Atomixwx]

Also, pond hockey in the middle of Lake Raystown next week for all interested. I don't think that's happened in about 15 years lol

 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Also, pond hockey in the middle of Lake Raystown next week for all interested. I don't think that's happened in about 15 years lol

 

That is how long it too for them to grow up new players from the ones that "got wet" last time. 

[Bubbler86]

Road trip

 

[Bubbler86]

GFS almost captures the second weekend wave.  It's rain for most of the Thursday event. 

 

[Bubbler86]

Not used to having to scroll down to find our forum.  Not enough going on in the sports world?  When does Blizz take lunch?   Did Paweather get stuck on Space Mountain while "working"? 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not used to having to scroll down to find our forum.  Not enough going on in the sports world?  When does Blizz take lunch?   Did Paweather get stuck on Space Mountain while "wokring"? 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

That's because the GFS still hates us.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That's because the GFS still hates us.

The upgrade is killing us. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU Met is not about suppression this weekend:

As I mentioned on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye on Friday and Saturday (Jan. 21-22) for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Details remain nebulous at this distance, and there's a wide range of potential solutions at this time. Anything from an out-to-sea solution to a major snowstorm or another snow-to-rain event is currently on the table. However, I always like to look at these smaller-scale systems from a broader perspective and ask, "What does the large-scale pattern suggest?" In this case, the ridge axis in the West that I so often refer to is still modeled to be right along or just offshore of the West Coast. At the same time, the large-scale, downstream trough axis (or bottom of the dip in the jet stream) will likely be over the Mississippi or western Ohio Valley. This is not too dissimilar from the large-scale setup that was present over the last few days, making me highly skeptical an out-to-sea outcome.

Now, there are going to be several disturbances (associated with the southern branch of the jet stream) that come onshore into Southern California over the next 24-48 hours. At the same time, energy associated with the northern branch of the jet stream will dive down into the northern Plains. This is what meteorologists refer to as a "split flow" jet stream pattern, and these are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The two branches of the jet stream often converge across eastern parts of the US in these types of patterns, and just where, when, and how these two branches interact can mean the different between a major winter storm and nothing at all! Trying to sort out which disturbances are going to interact with one another and in what fashion is challenging, to say the least, more than a few days in advance. So, my point is that, while I currently do favor a solution that results in at least some snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and northern Maryland late Friday into Saturday, we're still only talking about "potential." A lot can change in the next 2-3 days, and I certainly wouldn't bet money on any particular outcome! What we will likely have going for us this go around is a cold, Canadian high pressure system centered across northern New England instead of hundreds of miles offshore. This means that north-to-northeasterly winds would be able to funnel cold air down into the Commonwealth before the storm arrives and keep it "locked in" during the event. In last night's case, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean routed the cold air mass in place and caused precipitation to change over to a wintry mix and rain. At least at this distance, it doesn't appear that we'll have to contend with the same issue on Friday and Saturday. Details will become more clear over the next 2-3 days, so follow @MUweather on Twitter for my latest thoughts and frequent updates!

I'll end by re-emphasizing a point I made on Saturday. Toward the last day or two of January and the first few days of February, our cold, wintry pattern may begin to slowly shift back toward what we saw in December. It sometimes takes a major storm to bring about these pattern changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's another storm threat sometime between January 29 (the day I turn the "big 3-0" -- yikes!) and February 1. But, this is just speculation at this point.. so let's deal with one storm at a time and the rest of the chaos sort

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS almost captures the second weekend wave.  It's rain for most of the Thursday event. 

 

See my post above - Elliott thinks we're getting snow this weekend. And perhaps an even bigger one to follow. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

See my post above - Elliott thinks we're getting snow this weekend. And perhaps an even bigger one to follow. 

His most positive MR and LR (in a case of snow for the LSV) post I can recall of the ones you have copied over.

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Met is not about suppression this weekend:

As I mentioned on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye on Friday and Saturday (Jan. 21-22) for a potentially significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Atlantic. Details remain nebulous at this distance, and there's a wide range of potential solutions at this time. Anything from an out-to-sea solution to a major snowstorm or another snow-to-rain event is currently on the table. However, I always like to look at these smaller-scale systems from a broader perspective and ask, "What does the large-scale pattern suggest?" In this case, the ridge axis in the West that I so often refer to is still modeled to be right along or just offshore of the West Coast. At the same time, the large-scale, downstream trough axis (or bottom of the dip in the jet stream) will likely be over the Mississippi or western Ohio Valley. This is not too dissimilar from the large-scale setup that was present over the last few days, making me highly skeptical an out-to-sea outcome.

Now, there are going to be several disturbances (associated with the southern branch of the jet stream) that come onshore into Southern California over the next 24-48 hours. At the same time, energy associated with the northern branch of the jet stream will dive down into the northern Plains. This is what meteorologists refer to as a "split flow" jet stream pattern, and these are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few days in advance. The two branches of the jet stream often converge across eastern parts of the US in these types of patterns, and just where, when, and how these two branches interact can mean the different between a major winter storm and nothing at all! Trying to sort out which disturbances are going to interact with one another and in what fashion is challenging, to say the least, more than a few days in advance. So, my point is that, while I currently do favor a solution that results in at least some snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and northern Maryland late Friday into Saturday, we're still only talking about "potential." A lot can change in the next 2-3 days, and I certainly wouldn't bet money on any particular outcome! What we will likely have going for us this go around is a cold, Canadian high pressure system centered across northern New England instead of hundreds of miles offshore. This means that north-to-northeasterly winds would be able to funnel cold air down into the Commonwealth before the storm arrives and keep it "locked in" during the event. In last night's case, southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean routed the cold air mass in place and caused precipitation to change over to a wintry mix and rain. At least at this distance, it doesn't appear that we'll have to contend with the same issue on Friday and Saturday. Details will become more clear over the next 2-3 days, so follow @MUweather on Twitter for my latest thoughts and frequent updates!

I'll end by re-emphasizing a point I made on Saturday. Toward the last day or two of January and the first few days of February, our cold, wintry pattern may begin to slowly shift back toward what we saw in December. It sometimes takes a major storm to bring about these pattern changes, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's another storm threat sometime between January 29 (the day I turn the "big 3-0" -- yikes!) and February 1. But, this is just speculation at this point.. so let's deal with one storm at a time and the rest of the chaos sort

I don’t like the part about “shifting back toward what we saw in December.”

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I don’t like the part about “shifting back toward what we saw in December.”

It does not jive with the MA LR thread theme of no end in sight.   I would put more weight in MU though. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That's because the GFS still hates us.

I'll say this - the GFS has been on a roll this winter, but it's been largely dominated by northern stream energy. This weekend is mostly southern stream, which the GFS typically has had a SE bias. Also, the southern stream is the Euro's "strength." (this is from a met discussion I read this morning, this isn't my personal nonsense) Anyway, the GFS is incrementally getting closer - I still feel good that we'll get "something". Might not be the huge totals the Euro had yesterday but I think some snow is on the table. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I don’t like the part about “shifting back toward what we saw in December.”

That's only after what is likely 3 chances for snow - tomorrow night (I didn't copy over his post about that), this weekend, and then next weekend. Let's get through 3 chances for snow and worry about February in...February.  

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's only after what is likely 3 chances for snow - tomorrow night (I didn't copy over his post about that), this weekend, and then next weekend. Let's get through 3 chances for snow and worry about February in...February.  

True. Scoring big in January is always the key.

[Bubbler86]

Up to 34 here already.   The sun is turning the ice into slush and they are finally plowing the streets.  Could not break the ice until now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Up to 34 here already.   The sun is turning the ice into slush and they are finally plowing the streets.  Could not break the ice until now. 

37 here with rapidly dwindling white. My low overnight was only 32 though. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

37 here with rapidly dwindling white. My low overnight was only 32 though. 

I think most of the snow will be gone tomorrow (grass as well).  I can already see grass because the massive amounts of sleet pushed that 5+" down to only 2".  But it has been fun the last couple days. 

[paweather]

One southern storm after another all misses

[paweather]

Let's go EURO 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

One southern storm after another all misses

Could very well be, but in a pattern like this we can't say 4 days out from any threat whether it'll be a hit or a miss. We didn't have tomorrow night on our radar until early yesterday.