kerplunk Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Wind-driven snow here blowing horizontally at 32.7º. Was surprised when I looked at radar because it’s not really showing up much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: That’s the control. Correct this is the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Festus said: 39/37 with grass showing through and some spots bare already. With DP above freezing, my "snow pack" is on life support. Meh, next. Just drove into office in Etown. You look much more wintery than Akron/Ephrata. Penyrn also did. then very little left until I hit Etown. Cutoff shown was legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 With this morning's snow, I've reached 4" of total accumulation for the storm. Ground truth right now is closer to 1.5", but as Anotherman said, given the extreme rainfall rates overnight I fully expected to see nothing but green and some piles this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Employee of mine outside Newville apparently had a tree come down on her house last night with the wind 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 dumping snow right now. 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Speaking of the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Was about to go clean up and it’s pouring snow. I’ll wait lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 It snowed in Florida (Pensacola) yesterday and some houses were destroyed by tornadoes. A little '93 like. https://twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1482739803854712837?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Out and about on a snowy Monday... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 My American flag got torn off of the pole. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Reminder that the wind advisory begins at 10. Gusts nearing 50 all day and most the night. It’ll be from the wesr, not the east or south like overnight and these winds will be much more potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I think the more inside track of the low was what allowed the NAM to “nail” the warm surge since the low pressure ended up going right over my head. I bottomed out at 981mb this morning a few hours ago, probably the lowest MSLP around here since Hurricane Sandy. The low coming in this far really didn’t become evident on guidance until the near term yesterday since the consensus had generally been curling the rapidly deepening low into eastern PA, not dead center in the state. That was enough of a difference to not only allow a changeover to rain but also get some of the heavier rain and wind tapped down with the occluded frontal passage before the dry slot into the Sus Valley. NAM never really saw the half decent front end snows in the LSV until it was already happening. All models weren’t cold enough at the beginning of the storm either from the Laurels eastward in the state. Please don't ever leave the board..... From what little I saw over the weekend, there was enough bouncing around w/ the SLP that "nothing was a lock". Yes, it was being shown, but at varying placements...again that had a big effect on many here. As I'm a fan of the NAM (and yes, it like the GFS saw this inland deal....there was plenty enough wiggle room out there for this to have been a bit further east which would have saved a bunch of yards. As I stated late last week, 50-75 miles either way likely affected 75% of the forum members. There should be no chest thumping by any one model, as none "nailed it"....they should just be thankful they got lucky, as it is rather rare to see a LP with dense cold established, to retro west and head straight into it. IF that HP would have stayed put just a bit longer...blah blah..., that in itself could have been enough to help nudge this east a bit more...but yeah thats wishcasting. This storm had tricks for many of us...and showed things that we don't often see (bouncing SLP's etc, and like you said, right close to go time). Many way higher in pay grade from us were challenged as well, and this one defied normal logic. Now we all clean up our scratches/bruises (LSV'rs mostly) and move onto the next one. Congrats to all that scored enough to keep it OTG. 80% or mine was gone when I left for office. 34 in Akron and 31 by the time I got to Etown. Etown looks way snowier than my casa. Next....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Seems like a certain storm chasing group has disabled their page on Facebook. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, AllWeather said: Seems like a certain storm chasing group has disabled their page on Facebook. I am not familiar with this but curious. Is this the group new Washington DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The NAM was good with showing that there were going to be P type issues even north and west - but I’m not sure I give it too much credit because a wide spread Western/west central PA ice storm really didn’t materialize. Just a lot of mixing and flipping. Most areas around Pittsburgh look to be finishing 7” to 10” once this morning tapers off. The real prolific stuff got shunted a little more west, as the WV panhandle and extreme western PA should pop some 12” totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Friend up in Niagara on the Lake got a foot. Biggest snow for them in 8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Seems like a certain storm chasing group has disabled their page on Facebook. lol. Not the first time they disappeared. They'll pop up somewhere. Many weenies will likely forget this mess and jump back on for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Snow finally shut off here. I haven't been outside but I would assume 8-10 is the answer. Warning criteria verified. I'll take that as a win. And can we finally remove the statue of the ECMWF outside of the stadium? At this point, it's like that time when Spanier and Curley went to the old man's house to ask for his resignation and he told them to go **** themselves. It's a fine model, but it's currently no longer god. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Seems like a certain storm chasing group has disabled their page on Facebook. Is that guy out of jail yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Atomixwx said: Snow finally shut off here. I haven't been outside but I would assume 8-10 is the answer. Warning criteria verified. I'll take that as a win. And can we finally remove the statue of the ECMWF outside of the stadium? At this point, it's like that time when Spanier and Curley went to the old man's house to ask for his resignation and he told them to go **** themselves. It's a fine model, but it's currently no longer god. Okay, this is very well done! Thanks for the Monday morning laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: The NAM was good with showing that there were going to be P type issues even north and west - but I’m not sure I give it too much credit because a wide spread Western/west central PA ice storm really didn’t materialize. Just a lot of mixing and flipping. Most areas around Pittsburgh look to be finishing 7” to 10” once this morning tapers off. The real prolific stuff got shunted a little more west, as the WV panhandle and extreme western PA should pop some 12” totals. Yea, just to clarify, although one user said the Nam nailed it, I think the general thought was that the Nam foretold that the low may go further west than some suites had it and that it would not be a pure snow event for much of the west like other models alluded to as well. So many people think the Nam is garbage that it leads to Nam apologists (like me) coming out in droves when it was not all bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, just to clarify, although one user said the Nam nailed it, I think the general thought was that the Nam foretold that the low may go further west than some suites had it and that it would not be a pure snow event for much of the west like other models alluded to as well. So many people think the Nam is garbage that it leads to Nam apologists (like me) coming out in droves when it was not all bunk. It definitely was an important part of framing up the final result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Snow finally shut off here. I haven't been outside but I would assume 8-10 is the answer. Warning criteria verified. I'll take that as a win. And can we finally remove the statue of the ECMWF outside of the stadium? At this point, it's like that time when Spanier and Curley went to the old man's house to ask for his resignation and he told them to go **** themselves. It's a fine model, but it's currently no longer god. Ironically, along with its less stellar recent past, it is no longer Dr. No (EC). Just look at this weekend. GEM, GFS are NO...EC is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Snow finally shut off here. I haven't been outside but I would assume 8-10 is the answer. Warning criteria verified. I'll take that as a win. And can we finally remove the statue of the ECMWF outside of the stadium? At this point, it's like that time when Spanier and Curley went to the old man's house to ask for his resignation and he told them to go **** themselves. It's a fine model, but it's currently no longer god. We can only hope it’s discovered that the folks at the ECMWF have been covering up and enabling something heinous and disgusting for decades and they have to suspend it for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Chasing snowstorms is akin to playing a roulette wheel. You pick a color, or a number, then decide how good you feel about the odds of winning....and spin the wheel. Sometimes you get a little lucky, sometimes alot....but there's ALWAYS luck involved. Watching models and weather has many similarities. Thats no discredit to red taggers or folks who know their chit...but I'd think they too would agree. Alright the NAM started to tease me a bit earlier this morning. I need a serious pack refreshing over my way....starts to stare at remaining chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: It definitely was an important part of framing up the final result. NAM gets props for this one, but as Superstorm suggested, we us all of them for a blended consensus. But we've all seen this enough to know that it may crap the bed for the next one. I still like it...and this give me hope for the next time I like what it sees step on that limb once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Skies are starting to clear now. That was a fun storm to track, and packed quite a wallop. And oh yeah...it's trash night here. Which means that it's time for the winds to start doing their thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 It's post frontal and 2M temps are near freezing in the LSV but Nam even more vigorous for Thursday on the 12Z run as wave forms on the front. 2-4, maybe more, for the rush hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks like it wants to win again. Havent we seen this "look" before? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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