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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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I think this was actually remarkably well modeled here in the Capital region (outside of some stingy NAM runs).. Mesos even at range consistently showed onset around 5 pm and changing to sleet between 9-10 pm w/ accumulations in the 4-5 inch range… that’s exactly what has happened here a few miles NE of hbg.. and looking back to global OPs runs from Weds, I think they were pretty good at nailing the upper-levels and general progression/timing.. certainly never budged off of the atypical inland track idea that resulted in our widespread taintage followed by dryslot.. no complaints here!! Glad everyone seems to have gotten something decent out of this fickle beast! Felt like we were tracking this one for a month.


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1 minute ago, Jonesy56 said:

I think this was actually remarkably well modeled here in the Capital region (outside of some stingy NAM runs).. Mesos even at range consistently showed onset around 5 pm and changing to sleet between 9-10 pm w/ accumulations in the 4-5 inch range… that’s exactly what has happened here a few miles NE of hbg.. and looking back to global OPs runs from Weds, I think they were pretty good at nailing the upper-levels and general progression/timing.. certainly never budged off of the atypical inland track idea that resulted in our widespread taintage followed by dryslot.. no complaints here!! Glad everyone seems to have gotten something decent out of this fickle beast! Felt like we were tracking this one for a month.


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I think the GFS was the first to go away from the Miller A solution.  If so, props to it.  

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think the GFS was the first to go away from the Miller A solution.  If so, props to it.  

After one run that gave us a coastal along with 12"+ of snow for this storm (6 days ago), it definitely was the first and initially only model to show the inland track with the low going up through PA.  It really does deserve credit.

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At 10:10pm in Carlisle, my temperature has risen to 26.8 degrees which is roughly 2.5 degrees higher from last hour.  Dew point is 26.  The pressure continues its rapid descent, now down to 29.56" or 1001 mb and falling at a rate of 0.11" /hr, or nearly 4 millibars/hr.  Since the snow ended and the sleet began I have recorded 0.3" of sleet.  It is currently a mixture of sleet with freezing rain roughly 70/30 sleet/zr.  If temps don't go much above 32 for too long I should be able to hold on to the new snow pack pretty well. 

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

If Accuweather's future radar is to be believed, I'm going to see some HEAVY sleet here once it flips. There's a lot of yellow and orange colors in the radar presentation aimed right at eastern PA. 

I posted about this a bit ago a good fetch off the cold ocean right back into south central PA

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Starting to flirt with the mixing zone on the CC product. Still all snow for now but will see when the next patch of brighter echoes get here shortly. HRRR has been pretty consistent on an approx 11pm transition to sleet here so that’s probably looking pretty good. Also starting to get near the dry slot as well, though I expect some rebuilding of echoes to a degree. 

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Man the far western side of PA/Pittsburgh got screwed. The NAM did right for them - dry slot and torch at 850 while Ohio gets pummeled. That’s terrible. 

Have not had time to analyze too much but I feel like the GFS was on the non Miller A train first, the Nam (like usual it seems) was fairly decent in forecasting thermal issues over there and of course the dry slot. 

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just thought if we do get above freezing we are not going to be dry slotted that fetch of yellow and dark greens off the ocean could cause some flooding ground still rock hard frozen then snow and ice on top of the snow no where for run off the go from dirty grassy areas

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