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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

The Euro runs the primary low a bit further into WV and stronger. Precip rates look a bit better along the m/d line during the front end this run to my eye :ph34r:.

Going to be a awesome storm to track tonight through Monday. 

Mod to Heavy snow / big wind/ some ice / backend SS / wind and a sub 985 low going right over my weather station :weenie:

:popcorn::popcorn:

Euro looks pretty good for our area. Most aggressive with snow. Snows from about 1pm to 9 pm. Probably some 1" per rates in there during the late afternoon early evening time frame

 

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7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

Any thoughts on the triple point look on the Euro?

Its been a pretty common theme with this storm reaching the point of being a mature cyclone when the low center approaches our latitude. This low rapidly deepens going through the Mid-Atlantic region which gives it the look of bending back in as it occludes. 

I don’t really have much to add that I haven’t mentioned before, the overall storm track continues to be the issue for the LSV. I still think the warm surge is brief but as I mentioned before the key is going to be the strength/speed of warm air intrusion aloft on a strong low level jet before the surface low runs over some portion of eastern PA. Can the LSV get smacked with a good front end snow before warm air wins out for a time ? Certainly, I think most guidance suggests a period of decent snow up front… but it’s looking more of the advisory variety (general 2-4 maybe some 5” in the western part of the Sus Valley, IMO.

I agree with @MillvilleWxon his take about the Euro, although I have liked it’s overall interpretation of a tighter transition zone. I still don’t buy a super wide swath of measurable ZR in our region with this setup. Certainly in the south its a different story, but as mentioned before the high pressure moves east as the storm makes the turn up and it becomes a boundary driven/cold conveyor belt setup over the initial CAD setup. I see any ZR swath as thinner as I think only the LSV gets 925 and surface routed. And even though the low is close I do not see the ridge and valley region westward getting those levels routed. 850mb might though, so sleet could be more in play there for a period of time. If this ends up colder and we don’t have a quicker transition to liquid/freezing liquid, the dry slot might shut off precip before there’s much QPF as non frozen. Which speaking of…

The other issue, which you could argue is the bigger one  in the longer run is the dry slot. Eastern PA is going to slot out with the forecast track and how much that slot gets into the central counties (the UNV/AOO/99 corridor) will factor into what the top end is there. The storm rockets right up, it’s not blocked due east or a cutoff slow mover.. so I don’t foresee a part two snow for the Sus Valley like some of the recent bigger events when everyone gets back to a snow column by Monday morning. The deform will hang in western and perhaps some of central (another thing to consider in the central region with top end) 

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4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

They still won't budge on issuing watches east of the Susquehanna. Like I said earlier, even Carbon and Monroe in the Poconos, per PHL have watches hoisted...

I think they're in between a rock and a hard place east of I-99/220 and especially the river, which is likely why the counties in the ridge and valley still in the Watch zone and the six unproducted counties are that way. 

They may wait until tonight and see if WWAs are more applicable for those regions. It seems to be pretty locked in, at least according to what I am seeing that all frzn precip will occur west of I-99/US 220, which prompted the upgrade. 

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5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol I don’t think I’ve ever seen that lineup of counties with Bedford tacked on before without including the other I-99 corridor counties. They must be concocting a different warning statement for them haha. 

I agree, very different set up with Watches and Warnings and the county groupings.

It doesn’t make sense to me at all…

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11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I think they're in between a rock and a hard place east of I-99/220 and especially the river, which is likely why the counties in the ridge and valley still in the Watch zone and the six unproducted counties are that way. 

They may wait until tonight and see if WWAs are more applicable for those regions. It seems to be pretty locked in, at least according to what I am seeing that all frzn precip will occur west of I-99/US 220, which prompted the upgrade. 

Nevermind. They went with WWAs at 3:00 lol

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13 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Nevermind. They went with WWAs at 3:00 lol

Yup.  Definite downgrade for those a few counties deep west of the river.  And my grid forecast says gusts to 50 on Monday.  Wind Advisory lurking.

A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

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18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Nevermind. They went with WWAs at 3:00 lol

So the majority of Bedford County gets 6-11”  and 1 tenth of ice warning while Blair (Altoona) and Centre (State College) have an advisory for 3-5” and 1 tenth of ice? All while my newish grid forecast has 6-12” total. That makes zero sense lol. 

My overall take on the afternoon guidance led me to thinking the warning swath would have looked something like this.

 

State College, PA.png

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41 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Anyone with more information regarding wind. Euro is throwing out guest to near 60mph for Harrisburg. If mixing is going to dislodge this cold then it’s going to bring the wind with it mixing it down. I don’t think you can have one without the other here. 

@MAG5035 has said he doesn’t expect those gusts to mix down and CTP seems to agree. I don’t understand the dynamics of why not myself. CTP is peaking to mid 40s 

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My grid forecast is incredibly detailed regarding temps. 
 

Sunday
Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 
Sunday Night
Snow before 10pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 38 by 4am. Northeast wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. 
M.L.King Day
A chance of rain and snow before 3pm, then a slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

So the majority of Bedford County gets 6-11”  and 1 tenth of ice warning while Blair (Altoona) and Centre (State College) have an advisory for 3-5” and 1 tenth of ice? All while my newish grid forecast has 6-12” total. That makes zero sense lol. 

My overall take on the afternoon guidance would have led me to thinking the warning swath would have looked something like this.

 

State College, PA.png

I agree.  I suppose we'll see what the next shift at CTP does.  

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Not sure I saw anyone mention it but I am going to....HRRR relented to eventually showing the coastal as the low pressure point tomorrow evening but still took the primary up into East Kentucky as a 996.   The "coastal" which is really not a coastal, then rides due north cutting snow off in the LSV around 10PM allowing for 9 hours of varying intensity white stuff.  A good run for the Lsv, a great run  for @KPITSnowwhere it snows until Monday AM.  Posting the snow map because its somewhat comparable to the Euro.    Using HRRR LR snow maps is not a great idea but when they compare to others....

image.png.82511e111f89a93d126d5ce465e0ea8a.png

 

 

 

 

 

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I guess baby steps for a better snow? did it slightly come in south east? one thing I find strange abc has us changing over to rain around 10pm sun night only a few hours of snow. but updated wwa says its in effect till 1pm mon? talk about confusing 15 hours give or take from when abc27 says going over to rain till the wwa stops thats just  lol

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1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

I think they should have a WINTER  storm Warning due to the complexity of this situation and especially at night. Even though it doesn't fit the criteria. What a screwed up forecast. Just my opinion.

I think Franklin and Cumberland should still have a WSW...maybe Adams. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

So the majority of Bedford County gets 6-11”  and 1 tenth of ice warning while Blair (Altoona) and Centre (State College) have an advisory for 3-5” and 1 tenth of ice? All while my newish grid forecast has 6-12” total. That makes zero sense lol. 

My overall take on the afternoon guidance would have led me to thinking the warning swath would have looked something like this.

 

State College, PA.png

In my experience growing up in SE Huntingdon county and living in the Cumberland Valley and HBG metro, my opinion is that they have the same weather due to being within valleys. Even with ridges (Jack's/Neelyton/Fannettsburg/Kittatiny/Blue mountains) separating the Shade Gaps and Chambersburgs of the world, the valleys generally share the weather as Franklin/Adams/Cumberland/Dauphin counties. As a result, I would understand breaking Fulton/Huntingdon/Mifflin/Juniata counties up into "ridges" and "not ridges" the same way the Pittsburgh office does Fayette and Westmoreland Ridges. Those low-lying areas will likely have similar results to the LSV. 

So yeah, I would take that green line of yours and shift it just a tad left and tell the ridge denizens to expect worse lol

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20 minutes ago, canderson said:

@MAG5035 has said he doesn’t expect those gusts to mix down and CTP seems to agree. I don’t understand the dynamics of why not myself. CTP is peaking to mid 40s 

The stable cold boundary layer at the surface usually keeps higher winds from mixing down that far away from the coast. You would need some kind of convective element otherwise, which is possible I guess given the dynamics of the system. There could be some kind of a line denoting the occluded front right before the dry slot. That’s likely the only time I could see noteworthy gusts prior to the low passage outside of maybe some gusty winds on some of those eastern/northeastern ridges.

Post low passage though? It is definitely going to be windy probably region wide. The Laurel’s might have worse conditions later Monday than during the main synoptic portion with blowing/drifting and some lingering upslope snows.

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28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

So the majority of Bedford County gets 6-11”  and 1 tenth of ice warning while Blair (Altoona) and Centre (State College) have an advisory for 3-5” and 1 tenth of ice? All while my newish grid forecast has 6-12” total. That makes zero sense lol. 

My overall take on the afternoon guidance led me to thinking the warning swath would have looked something like this.

 

State College, PA.png

It doesn’t make sense, but time will tell and they will just change it while the storm is ongoing so it looks like their forecast verified! Lol!

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24 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

In my experience growing up in SE Huntingdon county and living in the Cumberland Valley and HBG metro, my opinion is that they have the same weather due to being within valleys. Even with ridges (Jack's/Neelyton/Fannettsburg/Kittatiny/Blue mountains) separating the Shade Gaps and Chambersburgs of the world, the valleys generally share the weather as Franklin/Adams/Cumberland/Dauphin counties. As a result, I would understand breaking Fulton/Huntingdon/Mifflin/Juniata counties up into "ridges" and "not ridges" the same way the Pittsburgh office does Fayette and Westmoreland Ridges. Those low-lying areas will likely have similar results to the LSV. 

So yeah, I would take that green line of yours and shift it just a tad left and tell the ridge denizens to expect worse lol

I like this line of thinking. 

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