Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[MAG5035]

Euro still doin it’s thing for the most part.

0z vs 18z

 

[kerplunk]

To be honest…there’s only one thing I want from this storm; to be historically extraordinary in some way. Don’t care if it’s due to snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, wind, or some combination of those. Just want it to make me shake my head in wonder. That’s what I’m rooting for.

Thankfully, we’re living in a time when the chances of that happening are becoming increasingly less rare. And we’re just really getting started on what looks to be a long path of extraordinary events. Lots to look forward to!

May have overdone it with the hot cocoa tonight. Probably shouldn’t have it on tap.

[Wmsptwx]

49 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

To be honest…there’s only one thing I want from this storm; to be historically extraordinary in some way. Don’t care if it’s due to snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, wind, or some combination of those. Just want it to make me shake my head in wonder. That’s what I’m rooting for.

Thankfully, we’re living in a time when the chances of that happening are becoming increasingly less rare. And we’re just really getting started on what looks to be a long path of extraordinary events. Lots to look forward to!

May have overdone it with the hot cocoa tonight. Probably shouldn’t have it on tap.

I get it and totally agree. I want a ton of snow or sleet or freezing rain or wind or something. If this is a run of the mill no wind slop to sleet to rain boring advisory crap it’ll be depressing…but it’s most likely.

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has fresh wording for the Watch.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-152045-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-York-
Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,
Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York
345 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible
  Sunday evening into Sunday night.

 

[mahantango#1]

 From DT after he issued his first call, I guess his map is invalid now. BIG CHANGES IN NEW SHORT RANGE MODELS REGARDING JAN 16

Full update on the Twitter page

But basically what's happened is that the new high resolution models coming in Friday night early Saturday morning or dramatically warmer at the mid levels of the atmosphere. This is producing a lot more sleet and freezing rain even in the Shenandoah Valley Southwest Virginia Virginia as well as the Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont regions and into central Maryland.

Fo example in central Virginia the temperature stays below 32ﾟ until 7 o'clock on Sunday evening which is quite a bit later than what the data was showing earlier.

The precipitation comes in with a lot of freezing rain and sleet in all of Western North Carolina the Western half of virginia into Western Maryland and even into West Virginia. The snow amounts on these short range models are reduced but the ice and the ice storm threat is dramatically increased .

If this trend is confirmed we are looking at much more than ice storm in the interior or Western half of North Carolina virginia of North Carolina virginia Western and central Maryland and West Virginia and a lot less snow. I'm not going to change anything right now but if the trend continues the last call map tomorrow morning will be significantly different.

[Bubbler86]

Seems Nam backed off a bit on the extremes but still not good for most of PA.  Other models look great for the Western half of the state.   Also fairly consistent for the LSV.  1-3" for the most part except the more east and juiced euro which still gives Western LSV a decent score.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

 From DT after he issued his first call, I guess his map is invalid now. BIG CHANGES IN NEW SHORT RANGE MODELS REGARDING JAN 16

Full update on the Twitter page

But basically what's happened is that the new high resolution models coming in Friday night early Saturday morning or dramatically warmer at the mid levels of the atmosphere. This is producing a lot more sleet and freezing rain even in the Shenandoah Valley Southwest Virginia Virginia as well as the Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont regions and into central Maryland.

Fo example in central Virginia the temperature stays below 32ﾟ until 7 o'clock on Sunday evening which is quite a bit later than what the data was showing earlier.

The precipitation comes in with a lot of freezing rain and sleet in all of Western North Carolina the Western half of virginia into Western Maryland and even into West Virginia. The snow amounts on these short range models are reduced but the ice and the ice storm threat is dramatically increased .

If this trend is confirmed we are looking at much more than ice storm in the interior or Western half of North Carolina virginia of North Carolina virginia Western and central Maryland and West Virginia and a lot less snow. I'm not going to change anything right now but if the trend continues the last call map tomorrow morning will be significantly different.

Sleet aleet.  

[CoralRed]

This is the latest Wunderground has for us in Williamsport:

Tomorrow Night

100% / 4.4 in

Snow in the evening will mix with and change to rain overnight along with gusty winds. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. Low around 25F. Winds ENE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches.

The changeover to rain is supposed to be around 1am with the overnight temp rising to 38.  As I see it, I will be stuck walking/sliding/hoping not to fall on God knows what frozen mess for two weeks of below average temps if I don't shovel the snow shortly before the rain starts. If I end up out there shoveling in the rain, I will be beside myself. There will be a little morning snow too after the rain.  Ugh. 

I wish I could just cancel this one.  Sorry guys but this is how I feel.

[Festus]

2" -4" in my grid forecast.  Guessing the consolation prize of a WWA forthcoming sometime this afternoon.  Certainly not commensurate with the amount of time I spent on these boards the last week lol.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Festus said:

2" -4" in my grid forecast.  Guessing the consolation prize of a WWA forthcoming sometime this afternoon.  Certainly not commensurate with the amount of time I spent on these boards the last week lol.

It will not be too bad IMO if we either ice or dry slot and keep it.  

[Atomixwx]

Sunday

A chance of snow after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -5. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

M.L.King Day

Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 30. West wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[Bubbler86]

Trend Watch.  New HRRR will be out shortly but the 6Z continues to strengthen the original Vort as it climbs West of us and is blocked before it goes beyond our latitude.   Actually has it crawling easterly under the M/D line for a bit.   I suspect it is not programmed properly to anticipate the transfer to the coastal but if it holds at 12Z, its a valid way the LSV can get back into the real game.   It would initially stick it to Erie as there is never a deform band from a strengthening coastal.   The type of progression would lessen the speed and depth of an easterly breakdown of the LSV column. 

 

 

[mahantango#1]

Something tells me there will be problems even though it rains with temps. that are supposed to go into the mid 30s during the overnight that cold frozen ground will be a factor. Didn't we just experience that last weekend? NWS had to issue a Ice Storm Warning at when the precipitation was falling. I know up in this part of the state we did. I was stuck at 31 for hours when the models said I should have been in the mid 30s. I know this is a different situation then last week but the possibility could exist.

[kerplunk]

5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Sunday

A chance of snow after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 23. Wind chill values as low as -5. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Night

Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

M.L.King Day

Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 30. West wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Versus my new Point Forecast (5:11am):

Sunday

A chance of snow, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 24. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Sunday Night

Snow before 1am, then snow and freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Northeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 

M.L.King Day

Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain, becoming all snow after 9am. High near 33. West wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[WHEATCENT]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Trend Watch.  New HRRR will be out shortly but the 6Z continues to strengthen the original Vort as it climbs West of us and is blocked before it goes beyond our latitude.   Actually has it crawling easterly under the M/D line for a bit.   I suspect it is not programmed properly to anticipate the transfer to the coastal but if it holds at 12Z, its a valid way the LSV can get back into the real game.   It would initially stick it to Erie as there is never a deform band from a strengthening coastal.   The type of progression would lessen the speed and depth of an easterly breakdown of the LSV column. 

 

 

Are these models worth looking at at the far end of their runs? 

[pawatch]

6 degrees this morning. Shame all that cold going to waste.

This place is pretty much dead.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, WHEATCENT said:

Are these models worth looking at at the far end of their runs? 

Which model has been rock solid with this event?  The GFS probably the best in sniffing out the capture and then the Nam suggesting the risk of warm intrusion.  I can't say if the HRRR version could happen but the Western wave has been staying legit longer and longer in the other suites. So just trend watching.   Plus, does it hurt showing something good?  Glass half full. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Which model has been rock solid with this event?  The GFS probably the best in sniffing out the capture and then the Nam suggesting the risk of warm intrusion.  I can't say if the HRRR version could happen but the Western wave has been staying legit longer and longer in the other suites. So just trend watching.   Plus, does it hurt showing something good?  Glass half full. 

Maybe Dt was on to something with that map.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe Dt was on to something with that map.

LOL.  After just defending watching every model for trends, I am not saying the HRRR is right.  But I never believe in (actually despise) the thought process that this model is out of range, that model does not handle CAD well, etc...take what you can from the models and watch for trends. If the now running 12Z HRRR stands its ground and other suites show more with that western wave, we have a trend.  If not, then I just had fun doing some model PBP. 

[Greensnow]

-4 right now in Clarks Green. Going to be a mess tomorrow night and Monday.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Which model has been rock solid with this event?  The GFS probably the best in sniffing out the capture and then the Nam suggesting the risk of warm intrusion.  I can't say if the HRRR version could happen but the Western wave has been staying legit longer and longer in the other suites. So just trend watching.   Plus, does it hurt showing something good?  Glass half full. 

Yes, glass half full is good.

I think the HRRR that you posted is reasonable. The snow that arrives for the first roughly 6 hours should be 1 inch per hour type of snow.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, glass half full is good.

I think the HRRR that you posted is reasonable. The snow that arrives for the first roughly 6 hours should be 1 inch per hour type of snow.

It's just very different in that it is strengthening the inland low which means its not getting ready to Miller B itself.  We shall shortly see if it holds its ground.

[Atomixwx]

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe Dt was on to something with that map.

Yes. Maybe I will get 27 inches being in the 11 and 16 circles. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Yes. Maybe I will get 27 inches being in the 11 and 16 circles. 

You and me, brother.  I am hoping he puts a third accum over me and we break 30. 

[Superstorm]

It's just very different in that it is strengthening the inland low which means its not getting ready to Miller B itself.  We shall shortly see if it holds its ground.

Which helps us keep our thermals better. Still go to rain but not before a nicer thump.


.

[Atomixwx]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You and me, brother.  I am hoping he puts a third accum over me and we break 30. 

I am for that, as I believe my being close to 100 miles west would slot me in for 50 under any kind of third circling. 

I don't know what I'll do with 50 inches of heavy, wet snow, but it probably includes looking for a new home after my roof collapses

[sauss06]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, glass half full is good.

I think the HRRR that you posted is reasonable. The snow that arrives for the first roughly 6 hours should be 1 inch per hour type of snow.

Howz about this wind. Holy chit. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Which helps us keep our thermals better. Still go to rain but not before a nicer thump.


.

The front thump is the key with this regardless of the exact final track.

I am all good If I have 6 inches of snow of snow on the ground, then get a few hours of sleet/freezing rain & then top of off with another dusting to an inch of left over wrap around snow.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Which helps us keep our thermals better. Still go to rain but not before a nicer thump.


.

Exactly what I was trying to convey in a PBP sense...not a forecast. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The front thump is the key with this regardless of the exact final track.

I am all good If I have 6 inches of snow of snow on the ground, then get a few hours of sleet/freezing rain & then top of off with another dusting to an inch of left over wrap around snow.

If a low went under us and kept its core, we would be getting a back thump as well.  Just dreams right now.   But this is not a track issue,  this is a completely different evolution on the 6Z.  There is never a legit coastal wave at least into Monday.   986 going under my house.  Let's face it, its probably wrong but its still a solution to discuss if one is so inclined.