KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The major ALEET is here from DT tonight! Why make a 10-11 inch area then an 11-16 inch area? why not just one 10-16 area lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in. If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control! If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up! I hope both PA teams and DFT win. Keep things spicy. I am a steel sympathizer anyway but this week, seeing Brady go down would be nice as well. Have no idea how the Cowboys game goes. They could win 40-10 or lose 40-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @canderson Check this wind on the 0z GFS Wind speed & gusts! Just imagine Front St. tree damage! wouldnt this be considered blizzard conditions ? heavy snow rates and those winds? or do we need temps in the teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Why make a 10-11 inch area then an 11-16 inch area? why not just one 10-16 area lol? Lol. Training, blizz, etc....10" is your limit. 11 is now off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ruin said: wouldnt this be considered blizzard conditions ? heavy snow rates and those winds? or do we need temps in the teens? Yes, yes, & No. They took away sub 20 temps quite a few years ago. I'm pretty sure you need sustained winds >20mph with snowfall rates >1"/hr combo for 3 continuous hours for NWS blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story. I’m just not sure winds that high mix to the surface. I could def see some 20-35mph gusts occurring in the Sus Valley pretty easily. I dunno about 50+ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here was the 0z GEFS 6+ probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I’m just not sure winds that high mix to the surface. I could def see some 20-35mph gusts occurring in the Sus Valley pretty easily. I dunno about 50+ though. Thank you. I pray you are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is the 0z GEFS. Very nice mean low track from the DelMarVa to Southern NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here are the close ups from the 0z Euro as it approaches our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the close ups from the 0z Euro as it approaches our latitude. The low still has the strange non-traditional jump from the central Chesapeake to north central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 By 12z the low scoots east to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: By 12z the low scoots east to Long Island. I have a difficult time believing the LSV would be raining as the low jumps to the east at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wrap around light snow then continues Monday early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is a damn weird storm. Huge bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: This is a damn weird storm. Huge bust potential either way. im not buying with how west this is showing. remember how far south it was gonna go cause cold air suppresses it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I have a difficult time believing the LSV would be raining as the low jumps to the east at this hour. This is in the range where the high res Euro can cover the event hourly. The 6hr precip can be misleading with a quicker moving system. If you use the 1hr QPF by precip type/MSLP you’ll have a much better idea of transition times and precip ending. It looks like most stuff lifts out by about 10am (15z). That track through eastern Penn is rough for the LSV, hopefully it can sneak at least to moving over SE PA/Philly. But even as it looks now the LSV has a 6-8 hour period of snow followed by a transition to rain and then slot out. Here’s the 84 hr with the 1hr Ptype/MSLP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 0z Euro EPS >3” Probs >6” Probs 10:1 Mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6z NAM pretty similar to the 0z NAM still, but here's a look at what the 3z SREF had. Very similar to the Euro ensemble Additionally, PBZ and CTP already have just thrown up winter storm watches for large chunks of both CWA's... likely a hat tip to continued high confidence in most guidance of significant snow in at least the central and western counties. CTP's watch area looks like pretty much everything from the Susquehanna mainstem west. Below is the watch for central/south central counties, north central's is tied in with the Wind Chill advisory and no mention of mixing. No early morning update yet in the CTP AFD regarding the storm. Quote National Weather Service State College PA 405 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063-064-150000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 405 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or more possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could mix with or change to ice Sunday night into early Monday morning southeast of I-99 and I-80. A light glaze of ice is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The major ALEET is here from DT tonight! Does anyone think this map has any merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: 6z NAM pretty similar to the 0z NAM still, but here's a look at what the 3z SREF had. Very similar to the Euro ensemble Additionally, PBZ and CTP already have just thrown up winter storm watches for large chunks of both CWA's... likely a hat tip to continued high confidence in most guidance of significant snow in at least the central and western counties. CTP's watch area looks like pretty much everything from the Susquehanna mainstem west. Below is the watch for central/south central counties, north central's is tied in with the Wind Chill advisory and no mention of mixing. No early morning update yet in the CTP AFD regarding the storm. Lol, so when @sauss06 & I cross the bridge to Harrisburg just a few minutes away, we don’t need to “Watch” for snow. I’m sure the Watch will be extended at some point, but it is just LOL how whoever issued this county list has no clue on how the Harrisburg metro area works. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 storm is so strong before it was way south out to sea cause cold air surpassed it then it comes thousands of miles north and west and keeps wanting to keep ticking west per models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, so when @sauss06 & I cross the bridge to Harrisburg just a few minutes away, we don’t need to “Watch” for snow. I’m sure the Watch will be extended at some point, but it is just LOL how whoever issued this county list has no clue on how the Harrisburg metro area works. what you said reminds me of this commercial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Does anyone think this map has any merit?I think it’s very optimistic about mixing/rain that is modeled in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CTP has a strongly worded forecast discussion this morning: && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... *Significant winter storm potential with heavy snow and minor ice accumulation possible Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon Coldest minT will be Saturday night with lows in the negative to positive single digits from north to south. Light winds under sfc high should cap wind chills at -5 to -10F over the northern mtns or above advisory criteria. A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast early Sunday morning will begin to lift northeast and take on a negative tilt across the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon and then race northeast to be over NJ by 12Z Monday. This will be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a low pressure system moving north to a nearly stacked position by the end of D3. The guidance has come into much better agreement with the placement of this low lifting roughly along the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup. As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward behind robust isentropic lift and likely produce a period of moderate to heavy snow (WAA thump) early Sunday night (00-06Z Mon). Mixed thermal profiles and possible dry slot are in play into early Monday morning to the southeast of I-99/80 which could transition snow to ice over the southeast part of the CWA. While there are still some details to resolve, there is a strong enough model signal to issue a well-collaborated winter storm watch for most of the CWA from 18Z Sunday to 18Z Monday. The multi-model/blended QPF and SLRs indicate potential for 6" or more of snow with a minor ice glaze also possible across the southeast 1/3 of the area. Deformation snow appears to linger over the northern part of CPA through Monday morning. The expected snowfall btwn 12-18Z Monday was not included in the storm total with this cycle given that it is beyond the set time window. Expect cold/gusty NW flow to take over Monday night with deformation snow transition to lake effect/upslope snow showers into Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 6z GFS still looks good for most from around I-81 north & west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Whtm-27 has not changed their snow map from last night. S I guess they feel pretty confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Stop the count. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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