Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This storm is locked in on a doozy any way out of it it seems. 980ish low is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam very similar SLP wise at 39. 12Z showed an "L" in Mexico but the real SLP was in East Texas and still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam is running North of its previous 18Z position as of hour 69. It's the state of Alabama difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam is running North of its previous 18Z position as of hour 69. It's the state of Alabama difference. That likely is a bad sign I'd think if you like snow in the LSV. Road trip to Tennessee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: That likely is a bad sign I'd think if you like snow in the LSV. Road trip to Tennessee? It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction. This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good. 850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction. This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good. 850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point. That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio. Seriously, parts of TN get like a foot of snow I bet. It's almost a nonevent for snow up here but looks really icey. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio. Yep. What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts. Warm surges Northward with it. 850 low scouring many out at hour 81. The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: It's a board hug moment. Storm cancel for everyone (Model PBP not forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts. Warm surges Northward with it. 850 low scouring many out at hour 81. The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change. 3k NAM is half of Alabama south at 60. Low center is on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 3k NAM is half of Alabama south at 60. Low center is on the gulf coast. Yea, I see it is more south at the Surface. 850's are similar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio. yeah it SLP still dancing around a bit, but once it got to coast, it also headed straight at us. Cant deny that that trend on some guidance... I wanna toss.....but know better. Someone say we can toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Toss it Thx....but dont look at Icon...definitely a new trend...and not a good one (out to 69 anyway). 18z arent gonna make many here happy....me thinks. I hope I'm wrong. edit....I'm not wrong. 0-2 so far... almost tried to retrograde at one point. I've been preparing for a westward adjustment, but that was rather notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Icon trended west with the eventual track as well. More of a thump than the Nam but it goes from Winchester, To Rouzerville, then Bunions before lifting out of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That...is a great illustration. Makes complete sense given the setup. Easy to understand as well. This won’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Shouldn’t there be decent cold air damning for sleet and freezing rain after this weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Consider this a board cheer up after the Nam. Not sure I trust TT Accum graphics but its what I have in front of me. Reminder that the Icon does not show any Sleet or Frz in it's surface panels. Its snow or rain, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, medmax said: This won’t verify. I'm unclear, what's not going to verify. I simply said that was Bubbler posted was easy to understand, and made sense what he drew up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm unclear, what's not going to verify. I simply said that was Bubbler posted was easy to understand, and made sense what he drew up. Speaking of this, the 18Z GFS still has two surface reflections (at least) per this panel...but also some darn heavy snow in there. Note the mix poking up into S/W PA from the inland reflection which is supported by the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Are we really hinging our sads on der iKon and the Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Are we really hinging our sads on der iKon and the Nam? We tossed the Nam about an hour ago. It's GFS or bust right now. I get the finger though and Lanco/York are not going to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’ll be back Friday....Fingers crossed Edit:Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Are we really hinging our sads on der iKon and the Nam? GFS and Euro are still looking very good for us. Seems to me the Icon and NAM are usually not given as much weight here—unless they show a crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, kerplunk said: GFS and Euro are still looking very good for us. Seems to me the Icon and NAM are usually not given as much weight here—unless they show a crushing. Post of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Seems to me the Icon and NAM are usually not given as much weight here—unless they show a crushing. Nam has always had merit w/ some of us and rightfully so. ICON is purely shown for continuity....and fun. I dont know anyone in here that uses it for anymore than that. Fodder for weather chatter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I just don’t see a lot of merit to a dual-headed monster roaming up the coast. Seems to me that with these systems, the low strengthens and deepens off the coast. Can a met help me understand what Synoptics are at play here that would prevent the full transfer of energy and the intensification of a primary low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS really wasnt too bad. Here is warmest panel when its go time up here. 700's and 850's. If were gonna pick on to hug....this is it after this panel, wraparound is lifting out and column crashes... Its a nailbiter...still (a little amish slang coming out for my Lanco crew) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, medmax said: I just don’t see a lot of merit to a dual-headed monster roaming up the coast. Seems to me that with these systems, the low strengthens and deepens off the coast. Can a met help me understand what Synoptics are at play here that would prevent the full transfer of energy and the intensification of a primary low? I see it is a sort of Miller B like scenario but you are right, this is not your typical coastal takes over and goes into Bomb mode. The modeling shows this as being a mess with a new low that is captured. There is also the issue of the ULL 850 and 500 level energy that does not transfer completely at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 One thing my weather friends have told me is you need the 700 low to pass south of you for precip to be good and warming aloft to be mitigated. This depiction shows the low south of the m/d line, which is at least one positive (for those of us in lsv). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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