Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The northern eyewall appears to sit over Harrisburg. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: That looked pretty good. I don't think it even mixes in my backyard on that run. youre in the clear...all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thump -> Sleet -> Brief period of rain -> Dry slot. This won't be a high end MECS or HECS like it could've been. But I think many of us would take a 6-10" thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: The northern eyewall appears to sit over Harrisburg. Lovely. The SLP does not appear to make it up to you though the limited Euro maps but it still gets pretty windy Harrisburg way. Do not see surface winds by over 50 just above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Newman said: Thump -> Sleet -> Brief period of rain -> Dry slot. This won't be a high end MECS or HECS like it could've been. But I think many of us would take a 6-10" thump best accums shifted east. Showing for trends...not forecasts. Cant believe I still need to say that....but I do...and i will. 0z nooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The SLP does not appear to make it up to you though the limited Euro maps but it still gets pretty windy Harrisburg way. Do not see surface winds by over 50 just above. Hr 90 low over chessy bay Hr 93 over Frederick County Hr 96 jumps to NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hr 90 low over chessy bay Hr 93 over Frederick County Hr 96 jumps to NJ So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure. See snip below with Low 2 pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Hr 90 low over chessy bay Hr 93 over Frederick County Hr 96 jumps to NJ So...we have consensus for the sharp turn north/northwest to about our latitude before it abruptly pinballs northeast. If we slow down the whole process, would that shift the low further west or east? Do we root for faster of slower with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 12z Euro & GFS are making my lunch break that much better. Good to see the slight eastward progression today. Close agreement on snow between these 2 models at this time. The zig zag nature of the low as it approaches the MD/VA still looks bizarre. I still think we have time more more positive trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure. See snip below with Low 2 pointed out. Yes, that makes sense and I'm seeing that as well. I'm trying to figure out if we want faster or slowe progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure. See snip below with Low 2 pointed out. How does the model compute that with relation to precip type. To me this was pretty close to a bingo run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes, that makes sense and I'm seeing that as well. I'm trying to figure out if we want faster or slowe progression. As long as we have two areas of LP, if I am right, we have to pay attention to the left one as it will break the hearts of people who are focused on the right one.....basically it's one larger area of LP so 850's and surface will fail well inland even though the low "appears" to be way over the Chessy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: How does the model compute that with relation to precip type. To me this was pretty close to a bingo run. Look at the 2M map. The temps are failing way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel. Again, my interpretation. Others may have their own. Look at this 850 map. Low is well west at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Look at the 2M map. The temps are failed way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel. Again, my interpretation. Others may have their own. Thanks. Makes sense. Being on the west side of ridge will def help you hold on longer. It’s not a sw push more of se correct. (Warm air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Thanks. Makes sense. Being on the west side of ridge will def help you hold on longer. It’s not a sw push more of se correct. (Warm air) Yea, if I can stay on the NW side of the Surface presentation I should hold a bit longer even if just sleet/frz vs. plain rain. But its really close. I did not see a 93 map but you said it was showing the lowest pressure over Frederick. I think I would be changed if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro & GFS are making my lunch break that much better. Good to see the slight eastward progression today. Close agreement on snow between these 2 models at this time. The zig zag nature of the low as it approaches the MD/VA still looks bizarre. I still think we have time more more positive trends. It's farther South and East than the GFS and GEM which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, if I can stay on the NW side of the Surface presentation I should hold a bit longer even if just sleet/frz vs. plain rain. But its really close. I did not see a 93 map but you said it was showing the lowest pressure over Frederick. I think I would be changed if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Look at the 2M map. The temps are failing way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel. Again, my interpretation. Others may have their own. Look at this 850 map. Low is well west at 90. That...is a great illustration. Makes complete sense given the setup. Easy to understand as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Just too close verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That gradient between the have's and have nots is pretty sick. With features still roughly 2000 miles away, +/- 25 miles around here will have huge implications. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So...we have consensus for the sharp turn north/northwest to about our latitude before it abruptly pinballs northeast. If we slow down the whole process, would that shift the low further west or east? Do we root for faster of slower with this? IMO if we slow it down and 500 stacks....great. Column cools....we snow If we slow down and 500 doesnt capture, it tugs SLP inland screwin up your and my thermals while others are making naked snow angels much guidance has shown 500 tailing behind a bit. that worries me as inland solutions cant be discounted IMO. All the same, we are all close to something pretty nice. Anyone else have a thought/theory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That...is a great illustration. Makes complete sense given the setup. Easy to understand as well. I would need a Met to sign off on my model interpretation but I am fairly sure it is dual barrel when down in the South east. The low transfers but seems to maintain a reflection post transfer as it moves North East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Festus said: That gradient between the have's and have nots is pretty sick. With features still roughly 2000 miles away, +/- 25 miles around here will have huge implications. I keep telling myself this very thing. Such complexity overall, add in the fact it's still 72 hours out and just the slightest adjustments are going to mean a lot to our end result. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I keep telling myself this very thing. Such complexity overall, add in the fact it's still 72 hours out and just the slightest adjustments are going to mean a lot to our end result. We all need to keep telling ourselves that. All this verbatim analysis is a big big part of the fun, but until we get closer....its just that...fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 47 here. T-Shirt time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 42 Surprised my snow wasn't almost gone . Still about 40-50% coverage . A quick browse through the thread looks like guidance ticked east . Its in the 50's over in Western Franklin County. So not too bad here. Nice to get out. Not all guidance ticket East but the Euro kept us in the big dog game. Nam is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 47 here. T-Shirt time. 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 42 Surprised my snow wasn't almost gone . Still about 40-50% coverage . A quick browse through the thread looks like guidance ticked east . 43 here. Feels much warmer after the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 43 here. Feels much warmer after the past several days. Yea, after those days with highs in the low 20's, this does feel warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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