anotherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 You'll get nothing and like it. I want a hamburger, I want a hot dog… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I was thinking it was because "its only philly", and we are not supposed to be at the dance. Philly has a very loyal, passionate fanbase though. I think that game honestly is one of the more marquee matchups out there. And then there's the Super Bowl victory redemption thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: I want a hamburger, I want a hot dog… Spaulding, get your foot off the boat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs.. Looking at soundings along the m/d line in Adam's, York, Carroll it's really close to mostly snow . A few sleet panels for sure verbatim but I'd take the run in a heartbeat but I sure wouldn't be opposed to a 50 mile SLP shift east Only concern is lack of HP up north. Couple models have HP off east coast (1030ish). If we can get that better placed, then the work BOOM comes to mind, and would likely wrap some cold in as well as strengthen the SLP and create quite a baroclinic zone....but thats me wishing more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm sick and tired of your attitude. Let's meet at the old fire tower on the hilltop somewhere NW of State College and settle this once and for all. Winner gets to become the mayor of Paw Paw. Bald Eagle summit? I'll be there in 15 minutes lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Spaulding, get your foot off the boat! Hey, you scratched my anchor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps ..nice shift That gives us souther folk some wiggle room. The mean really is an ideal spot for us. Especially w/ the look at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Hey Matt....Good do see you. Always a good sign when folks like you are stopping in. You liking where were at? Nooners came in pretty close for 144 hrs out. Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. Yeah, it is a bit outta range for Ops, but as you said, its all about the trends, and they've been good today. I'm sure many can remember many a GFS op at range and being giddy, then to watch things go amuck...only for it to come back to something it saw 5-7 days prior. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period. . Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys.... Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period. . Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys.... Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit. Ha I saw. I lurk in the shadows a lot (and I bought a new phone since last year so just now signed in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Ha I saw. I lurk in the shadows a lot (and I bought a new phone since last year so just now signed in). Ohh....thats dark Sorry....not our best work...this AM. Fortunately the boring period is looking to go away for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 LOL - our good friend Roger Smith is already throwing accumulation amounts around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: LOL - our good friend Roger Smith is already throwing accumulation amounts around. Off of 1 really god set of runs....wow. Thats bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Okay, I’m interested now. Is this going to be another case of the GFS picking this back up first in the mid-range like the Jan 3rd event? There’s a lot of moving parts to this, but we’re going to have the amplified pattern we need to pop one of these big time events. Using Euro here (and Madden voice if you wish), Parent shortwave(s) of this potential system arrive on the west coast (main one Washington and another higher up in BC by about H48, appearing to phase in to a very potent 500mb shortwave and rounding and dropping straight down toward the Gulf. 57 HR 99 HR So a lot of the early phases of this are already within the short range (certainly in NAM range) as far as getting the parent shortwaves on shore to the point of this dropping down the plains toward the Gulf… and this has been modeled pretty solid getting a decent swath of precip to that point. So you’ll see in Hr 99 I marked a few other things and their eventual directions being modeled between then and the next map (Hr 126). As the parent 500mb shortwave slows and amplifies there’s another shortwave that comes in on the BC coast, while the closed 500 low (PV) over the far north of Canada lurks. Dashed line denotes positively tilted ridge axis. This is where it gets extremely important. These features HAVE to drop down behind and force this thing to round the bend, or else we’re sitting high and dry as this potent feature gets forced east and out under us. Today, the likes of the GFS and Euro are doing the former, so we’ll see if that trend continues. There’s big time potential on the table if it does. HR 126 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Off of 1 really god set of runs....wow. Thats bold. I'm surprised he's not going with 40-60" for I95. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Squeeze that mother****er 100 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Okay, I’m interested now. Is this going to be another case of the GFS picking this back up first in the mid-range like the Jan 3rd event? There’s a lot of moving parts to this, but we’re going to have the amplified pattern we need to pop one of these big time events. Using Euro here (and Madden voice if you wish), Parent shortwave(s) of this potential system arrive on the west coast (main one Washington and another higher up in BC by about H48, appearing to phase in to a very potent 500mb shortwave and rounding and dropping straight down toward the Gulf. 57 HR 99 HR So a lot of the early phases of this are already within the short range (certainly in NAM range) as far as getting the parent shortwaves on shore to the point of this dropping down the plains toward the Gulf… and this has been modeled pretty solid getting a decent swath of precip to that point. So you’ll see in Hr 99 I marked a few other things and their eventual directions being modeled between then and the next map (Hr 126). As the parent 500mb shortwave slows and amplifies there’s another shortwave that comes in on the BC coast, while the closed 500 low (PV) over the far north of Canada lurks. Dashed line denotes positively tilted ridge axis. This is where it gets extremely important. These features HAVE to drop down behind and force this thing to round the bend, or else we’re sitting high and dry as this potent feature gets forced east and out under us. Today, the likes of the GFS and Euro are doing the former, so we’ll see if that trend continues. There’s big time potential on the table if it does. HR 126 Nam at range looks very similar to euro if not even a little stronger with the phase of the northern shortwaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Elliot from Millersville compared the potential to the Carolina Crusher from 2000. I added that snowmap for comparison. Maybe this one can be the Keystone Crusher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, canderson said: I'm way behind on posts today and frankly incredibly confused. Only way to fix this is with a chocolate chip cookie for lunch. Late to the party (work and all) but screw that. I think a good old fashioned coal region Boilo is in order... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The closed 500 low is further north through 117 Yeah at 138 low center itself is sitting over our houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yeah at 138 low center itself is sitting over our houses. 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The closed 500 low is further north through 117 Yea, it closes off and goes negative a bit too early for the LSV and near group. It's a Tim special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, Voyager said: Late to the party (work and all) but screw that. I think a good old fashioned coal region Boilo is in order... Had to Google this one. I’ll take two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I figured the low might bump west........with the center of our closed 500 low traversing a higher latitude this run . I did not even look at the MA but I am guessing there are some JI like posts there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, Voyager said: Late to the party (work and all) but screw that. I think a good old fashioned coal region Boilo is in order... Friggin LOVE boilo. First year we've not had it for holidays in last 30 years. Thx Rona..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Had to Google this one. I’ll take two. Going to get my moms recipe and whip some up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Thought this cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs through 102 is south of the op. Music to our ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Gefs Stronger HP through 114 as well That and placement is key.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs 126 Thanks for posting these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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