Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Greensnow said: 23 up here with light snow. BGM has been slowly raising the totals and we should do 3-4". Wasn't expecting much but enjoy down south! Saturday night into Sunday has moved more to a snow changing to a mix up North. Finally winter! Nam has frz down in central VA on Sunday am now. A wintery several days indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 About 2.5” much more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 HRRR really nice for LSV! Transfer zone pretty clearly delineated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Snowing good here, accumulating nicely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Going to bed, long day. Probably 1” or so - hope to wake up with at least 4”! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 That's pretty wild that you guys could actually out jackpot the New England forum. Make it so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3.5" on a deck measuring area. Not super precise but close. About 3/4" in that last 45 min. Still not recaving streets after the rain though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 0z GFS continues to ramp up amounts in the LSV. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS continues to ramp up amounts in the LSV. If that's right, I'm in line for 6" more. I'm somewhat skeptical I'll get THAT much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: If that's right, I'm in line for 6" more. I'm somewhat skeptical I'll get THAT much. Hrrr has a similar area though about an inch less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hrrr has a similar area though about an inch less. Pretty good returns have moved back in but it hasn't translated into much flakeage here yet. Yes, I just made up a new snow word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 11 pm added another inch last hour. Just shy of 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 At 2” here now, moderate rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 No change in the past hour - still at 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Still have the deform band yet to come when the energy transfer to the coast at least I think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 At 11:00pm in Carlisle, the temperature is down to 27.7 degrees with a dew point of 26.8. It is currently snowing heavily, and has been heavy for nearly the entire past hour. In fact, I just doubled my storm total after receiving an additional 1.3" in the past hour and now have a storm total of 2.5". The heavy snow looks great. It's fluffy and accumulating quickly. We'll see how the day ends up at the midnight ob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just took my first measurement before heading off to bed, a hair shy of one inch. Temp at 28 and light to moderate snow falling. Hope to wake up to a beautiful scene. Night all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: No change in the past hour - still at 1.3" One more model memo for the night. Additional 6" for northern lanco, Lebanon, etc....on rap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 @Bubbler86didn’t look at models tonight since snow was coming down I believe you said Sunday looks Icy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: One more model memo for the night. Additional 6" for northern lanco, Lebanon, etc....on rap. Huge dendrites are now falling...and thanks for the updates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Excited for you Lower Susquehanna Valley guys. Enjoy! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, paweather said: @Bubbler86didn’t look at models tonight since snow was coming down I believe you said Sunday looks Icy? The thing that stood out to me, about Sunday, was the Nam showing real cad down into central VA. For me personally I need that to get Frz here. A big buffer. Won't sully up the boards doing a good snow storm with talking about it much more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The thing that stood out to me, about Sunday, was the Nam showing real cad down into central VA. For me personally I need that to get Frz here. A big buffer. Won't sully up the boards doing a good snow storm with talking about it much more. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 HRRR still has us getting one more significant burst of snow about 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, paweather said: HRRR still has us getting one more significant burst of snow about 2am Radar looking good. Maybe some costal enhancement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looking beyond tonight, the 0z GFS has a few more chances of snow during the next 15 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. 50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The thing that stood out to me, about Sunday, was the Nam showing real cad down into central VA. For me personally I need that to get Frz here. A big buffer. Won't sully up the boards doing a good snow storm with talking about it much more. I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event. The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Hey guys, here's my midnight ob and daily ob for 1/6/22: At 12:00am the temperature in Carlisle was 27.1 degrees with a dew point of 26.2. It continued to snow heavily during the past hour but at a slightly slower rate. During the past hour I measured an additional 1.0" of snow bringing the storm total to 3.5". I just melted down that snow and came up with 0.27" of liquid which produced a liquid equivalent ratio of 13 : 1. I'll be anxious to see what the post midnight snow ratio turns out to be since that will be roughly the second half of the storm, which one would think would have to be a drier snow. We'll see. Based on current radar it would seem a lock to get at least another 1.5" before it ends which would bring the storm total to 5.0" which would verify the winter storm warning. I think based on the look of the bands to the west which appear to be pivoting eastward I'll likely see one or two more really heavy bands. So I'll say that I expect to end up with between 5.5 and 6.5 inches by morning. I'm off to bed for the night so I'll do all my final measuring in the morning, probably between 8 and 8:30. I forgot to mention that I also cleared my snowboard for the new day of data. Good night for now and enjoy the next few hours for those who stay up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Looking beyond tonight, the 0z GFS has a few more chances of snow during the next 15 days. 0.22” qpf at mdt through midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event. The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize. Mod snow now. Somewhere around 5” estimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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