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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I can't tell you how many times over the years I've been under a Winter Storm Warning and received 0" of snow. Those warnings mean NOTHING to me, other than the obvious (impending significant winter storm is likely) How much snow piles up in my yard is not influenced by wording from the NWS.

Truer words............

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I'm in the tip of the arrow at the moment.  I don't know if I've ever seen precip make an approach like this before.  In any case I only have virga to report so far.  Temp 34.7 with a dew point of 18.  My wet bulb currently is 29.3, so evaporational cooling should fairly quickly pull my temp down to and then below freezing.  I'll check back in as soon as the first flakes fly.  I've got about an hour of enough daylight left to see the snow naturally (without any lights).

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Here’s what I have for entries.   I did bump mine up a little to give Carlisle some breathing room.   30 min to enter or edit.   
 

                                         Snow       QPF

CarlisePaWx                       4.4.       0.32

Bubbler86.                          4.1.        0.33 

Itstrianingtime.                   3.7.        0.34

Pasnownut.                         3.4.       0.24

Cashtown_Coop.                4.8        0.35

sauss06.                             3.9.        0.27

GrandmasterB.                  2.7.        0.20

Blizzard of 93.                   3.9.        0.29

Mount Joy Snowman.       3.2.        0.25

Atomixwx.                          1.7.         0.07

Anotherman.                     2.8.        0.23

Canderson.                       3.1.         0.24

pawatch.                        2.4.         0.13

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Here was the 12z HREF today, CTP seems to utilize this pretty heavily and would appear to support the expansion of advisories this afternoon, among the other guidance as well. I think this only runs 12 and 0z.

1466895964_SPCHREFEnsembleViewer-24-hrsnowfallensprobability-matchedmean.thumb.png.d7faff4cc984e73f864f9b743debf81d.png

I think warning totals have a chance of happening in a stripe, likely across the southern tier. A more enhanced band could present even a 15-18:1 type ratio. So, I think it could really pile up especially in the Laurel’s and even some of the ridges of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin (6-8”) type  if we get the rates and this could carry over into the LSV as well (5-6”). Otherwise this looks like it should be a 2-5” for most of the subforum. 

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11 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Every time I go outside I was thinking that.

Mag you look in a pretty good spot.

Hope everyone on the board gets a good hit!!

Cash

0.13. 2.4”

Yea it’s looking way better here than even yesterday, plus you guys up there should at least get to 2” or so I think. I’m expecting 3-4” here. Still expecting the real good stuff to be just south but we’ll see. 

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5 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

South of the Border is this country's originalsin. 

A few years ago I stopped there to piss. And while I was in the bathroom this older woman came in spraying a spray bottle on the toilets and urinals. No warning she was coming in. She didn't say anything either. She just kept spraying away.

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All entries are in.   Good luck to everyone.                     
 

 

                                           Snow      QPF

CarlisePaWx                      4.4.       0.32

Bubbler86.                         4.1.        0.33

Itstrianingtime.                   3.7.        0.34

Pasnownut.                         3.4.       0.24

Cashtown_Coop.               4.8        0.35

sauss06.                             3.9.        0.27

GrandmasterB.                  2.7.        0.20

Blizzard of 93.                   3.9.        0.29

Mount Joy Snowman.      3.2.        0.25

Atomixwx.                          1.7.         0.07

Anotherman.                     2.8.        0.23

Canderson.                       3.1.         0.24

pawatch.                           2.4.         0.13

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22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Got a hand it to the RAP, it has been consistent with ascent being maxed over a large area where the HRRR/NAM Nest are not. GFS actually right in line with it too. Hmmmmmmmm

Nothing like a battle down the very end between our models. I don’t hate the radar to our SW. 

Hoping to get the Carroll Valley/South Mountain enhancement going on this one, squeeze out optimal snow growth too. 

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