Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The last few GFS runs have brought the Arctic blast in some form or another (it’s very noticeable, though not particularly long-lived, on the 6z). I don’t think the ensembles look notably cold but it’s still a long way off.

I have seen it but like you said, not sure I would call it sustained.   As you have stated several times, would be nice to see a GFS run without 60 and 70's at some point. 6Z gave us that but just barely. 

[pasnownut]

Best takeaway from overnighter Ens guidance is the GOA LP is going going....thus allowing the troughing to progress further east and flow outta NW.  Also losing the looks of the cutoff LP in the SW.  East really needs NAO to help get a really good look, but its definitely a more workable one as we get into the New Year.  

 

[canderson]

It’s a beautiful day. 52 at noon. 
 

I’m skepticism of any accumulating snow in the LSV in the early morning tomorrow.  

[Bubbler86]

21 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s a beautiful day. 52 at noon. 
 

I’m skepticism of any accumulating snow in the LSV in the early morning tomorrow.  

Just finished a short App Trail walk and it was not cold.   If not for the wind it would be warm.  55 here. 

[Greensnow]

Big difference N v S today in PA. 37 up here at 12:30. Some snow tomorrow?!

[Superstorm]

Love seeing Seattle getting dumped on by heavy snow. Bodes so we’ll form our snow chances….ugh!!


.

[TimB]

Winter seems to be consistently scoring some victories in the D8-10 range on all of the 12z operational models. How much snow ushers in the cold period is a big question, but I’m cautiously optimistic.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro has the 2 wave approach on the 2nd into the 3rd. 
This is the second wave that brings Winter weather to PA.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

In the short term, the 3 major globals bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to a good portion of CTP tomorrow.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP has a good discussion today for tomorrow’s event.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
It`s all about precip type forecast-wise this shift. Warm air
moving in over CAD/cold wedge in place will mean a period of
frozen then freezing precip is likely until temps warm during
the daylight hours and also from SW to NE with the WAA and
diurnal heating working together despite the very shallow sun
angle. In general, most locations will receive a 2-4 hr period
of mix, and some locations will have FZRA stick around longer
as they struggle to get above freezing. Temp profiles from NAM
yield a fairly deep (2-3kft) sub-freezing layer until the aftn
for UNV, later for IPT and all day for the NE mtns. Thus, there
could be more sleet/PL than FZRA overall. Considering an advy
for ZR for much of the area, but the Lower Susq/srn tier and
also far NW/Warren Co, where the effects of CAD go away quickly.
Something else going against FZRA is the abnormal warmth we
have/are experiencing. Despite air temps going below freezing tonight everywhere, it may take a few more hours of below freezing temps to really make FZRA a /serious/ threat rather
than nuisance/advy level. QPF is also pretty light during the most- probable time for FZRA. Thus, ice accums should not get
into the warning (0.25/0.50") range anywhere in the CWA. Most
likely course of action is issuance of a winter wx advy (for FZRA) for much of the area, time stepped/segmented somewhat for timing. Don`t want to get too cute with timing, though. Uncertainty with the amount of heating we can muster, and intensity of the precip. Only a light accum of snow and sleet is likely, but again, some uncertainty exists with the depth of
cold wedge and eventual amount of PL. Again, temps should get above freezing by day`s end in the NE, but pretty early in the
day for the SW. The highest elevations may stay coldest longest since the wedge is that deep (2-3kft). Thus, the valleys may warm and dump the FZRA threat before the hill tops.

[BGM Blizzard]

WWA for parts of N PA...

[Bubbler86]

A spanking day.  56. 

[GrandmasterB]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

In the short term, the 3 major globals bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to a good portion of CTP tomorrow.

 

GFS, Euro, and NAM have been slowly improving (for snow/Ice) tomorrow.  Any snow or frozen is a plus right now!

[Festus]

8 hours ago, Festus said:

Local TV Mets were pretty bullish on a mix event tomorrow.  Maybe our first WWA of the season is possible down this way.

WWA for Lebanon and Dauphin but not Lancaster (and a few counties west of Lancaster).  I think CTP did that just to spite me.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here it is….

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
258 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

PAZ005-010-011-017>019-025>028-034-035-056-057-059-270800-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.211227T1300Z-211227T2000Z/
McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Perry-Dauphin-
Lebanon-
Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium,
DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona,
Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford,
McConnellsburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon
258 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up
  to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 3 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest ice accumulations will be on
  the hill tops.

 

[mahantango#1]

51 for the high today.

[Voyager]

49.6 was my high for today, which, strangely, occurred at 12:58am.

[MAG5035]

I think the big takeaway from that potential system a couple days after New Years is that it looks like it finally might be a catalyst of a much awaited reshuffling of the pattern that could get cold air more consistently on this side of the country. I don’t think we’ll be well positioned for the system itself however at that point with the southeast ridge still raging leading up to that.. unless we see the evolution with the follow up wave. That typically is a long shot of actually working well for us but it’s certainly possible. This system in general is definitely strongly agreed upon by all the models, though. 

In the nearer term, we have the first widespread advisory products of the season issued:

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT & @paweather do well tomorrow with snow according to the 18z GFS.

 

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT & @paweather do well tomorrow with snow according to the 18z GFS.

 

Me too, me too! I am in Danville for this. So, we shall see. This area can sometimes do better with low level cold hanging in there. Not many of the short-range models are showing much though.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Me too, me too! I am in Danville for this. So, we shall see. This area can sometimes do better with low level cold hanging in there. Not many of the short-range models are showing much though.

The HRRR has been slowly improving through the day.  Focusing more a bit west of the LSV though.  

[paweather]

54 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT & @paweather do well tomorrow with snow according to the 18z GFS.

 

Thanks! 

[TimB]

23 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

49 but still below what we were thinking. 

Winner? Wasn’t your original guess 49?

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Winner? Wasn’t your original guess 49?

I was racking my brain to remember 48 or 49, did not search back, but it was close! 

[MAG5035]

The next run in the HRRR cycle will be an extended one (0z) so we’ll have a look at the full event with that run. The last few regular ones have been pretty aggressive with the lead precip shield, which is needed if we’re going to get a meaningful period of snow/frozen up front. 

850mb temps actually are a bit above zero prior to precip arrival, so it’s important to have that heavier precip to get the column cooled before warm advection eventually wins out later tomorrow.

Here’s 850mb at Hr 12 right before precip arrives and hour 16 when it has gotten into a large portion of C-PA

[GrandmasterB]

I know you all love some NAM, so check out the 0Z.  Much love to our region.  Nice thump!

[TugHillMatt]

0Z runs definitely looking better for some front-end snow tomorrow. Good run for Mid and Upper Susquehanna Valley. Check this one out:

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

0Z runs definitely looking better for some front-end snow tomorrow. Good run for Mid and Upper Susquehanna Valley. Check this one out:

I’ll take 2” bring it

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

0Z runs definitely looking better for some front-end snow tomorrow. Good run for Mid and Upper Susquehanna Valley. Check this one out:

@TimB84 "I seen" the 18z GFS 384 snow map and it looks almost exactly like the snow map quoted here as to coverage.  SW PA getting disrespected. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@TimB84 "I seen" the 18z GFS 384 snow map and it looks almost exactly like the snow map quoted here as to coverage.  SW PA getting disrespected. 

God damnit LOL, you’re right. It was also 58 here yesterday.

Also LOL at bolded. Yinz know how to trigger me.