Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[MAG5035]

4 hours ago, TimB84 said:

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. 
 

I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

Well I started the thread that year starting right at this time of December haha. I know it doesn’t mean squat if the goods don’t start piling up in everyone’s yards but fundamentally we’re way different than 2019-2020 so far. The dominant thing that completely derailed pretty much that whole winter (really starting in January) was a relentless record positive +AO and +NAO that in the case of the former with a record strong PV, kept cold locked up well north a majority of the time. That ugly prognosis was starting to become evident on longer range modeling about this time in December and especially the last week or so of the month that year.

At any rate, I said right at the beginning of the month when it was looking like things we’re going to backtrack during the mid-month timeframe that this taking til after the holidays was on the table dependent on the MJO. Looking at todays forecast, we’re still stuck in 7 for at least several more days. I’ve also mentioned that even though that phase for NDJ skews a bit cold for the northeastern US, there’s not a high correlation to it definitely being cold.. or at least significantly so. This transitions to skewing towards a warmer eastern US and cold western US when applying the DJF three month average. Basically, what I’m seeing in terms of modeling the next 7-10 days or so makes sense to me with regards to that, and the following discussion is speaking most directly towards the next 7-10 days. 

The big issue I see is this, and it’s kinda being somewhat overlooked in here.. or least it feels that way.

I’m using the Euro ensemble there but it’s like that on all the major ensembles. That’s a pretty strong -PNA. The good thing is we should have the -NAO and -AO blocking, as well an -EPO although it looked like the Euro EPS and GEFS differed a bit on magnitude. The -EPO is good (the ridging into Alaska) because that turns the source region of air away from Pacific origin to being of Canadian origin and also allows the colder air to press. Unfortunately with a -PNA/low heights in the western US the way it is.. the main part of that cold at least initially presses there and not so much on this side of the country. The NAO/AO blocking is going to help though, which is why we’re going to at least be seasonable for Christmas week but probably not really super cold. From a storm standpoint I see there being a disadvantage of separate streams (weaker systems) or if one amplifies some that we get cut… which is what the operational models are showing. We could get some kind of winter event but it’s probably going to be a weaker one. As I see it we need to obviously keep some -NAO/AO and either shift the PAC ridge axis east or build the ridge to the West Coast… which I think happens when we finally boot the MJO out of phase 7. Overall, I still remain optimistic we’ll get a period of what we’re looking for. If I wasn’t optimistic about it you guys would know. 

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Heatmiser, we have not had much winter yet :-) 

lol...I know.

This year,  with everything going on, I'm just doubly not in the mood for digging out parking spaces, dealing with salt encrusted vehicles, worrying about jackknifing on the back roads from Tower to Sunbury, etc. 

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well I started the thread that year starting right at this time of December haha. I know it doesn’t mean squat if the goods don’t start piling up in everyone’s yards but fundamentally we’re way different than 2019-2020 so far. The dominant thing that completely derailed pretty much that whole winter (really starting in January) was a relentless record positive +AO and +NAO that in the case of the former with a record strong PV, kept cold locked up well north a majority of the time. That ugly prognosis was starting to become evident on longer range modeling about this time in December and especially the last week or so of the month that year.

At any rate, I said right at the beginning of the month when it was looking like things we’re going to backtrack during the mid-month timeframe that this taking til after the holidays was on the table dependent on the MJO. Looking at todays forecast, we’re still stuck in 7 for at least several more days. I’ve also mentioned that even though that phase for NDJ skews a bit cold for the northeastern US, there’s not a high correlation to it definitely being cold.. or at least significantly so. This transitions to skewing towards a warmer eastern US and cold western US when applying the DJF three month average. Basically, what I’m seeing in terms of modeling the next 7-10 days or so makes sense to me with regards to that, and the following discussion is speaking most directly towards the next 7-10 days. 

The big issue I see is this, and it’s kinda being somewhat overlooked in here.. or least it feels that way.

I’m using the Euro ensemble there but it’s like that on all the major ensembles. That’s a pretty strong -PNA. The good thing is we should have the -NAO and -AO blocking, as well an -EPO although it looked like the Euro EPS and GEFS differed a bit on magnitude. The -EPO is good (the ridging into Alaska) because that turns the source region of air away from Pacific origin to being of Canadian origin and also allows the colder air to press. Unfortunately with a -PNA/low heights in the western US the way it is.. the main part of that cold at least initially presses there and not so much on this side of the country. The NAO/AO blocking is going to help though, which is why we’re going to at least be seasonable for Christmas week but probably not really super cold. From a storm standpoint I see there being a disadvantage of separate streams (weaker systems) or if one amplifies some that we get cut… which is what the operational models are showing. We could get some kind of winter event but it’s probably going to be a weaker one. As I see it we need to obviously keep some -NAO/AO and either shift the PAC ridge axis east or build the ridge to the West Coast… which I think happens when we finally boot the MJO out of phase 7. Overall, I still remain optimistic we’ll get a period of what we’re looking for. If I wasn’t optimistic about it you guys would know. 

As always, well said. With all due respect to the rest of us peons, it gives me peace of mind to hear it from a met.

[TimB]

 

(Big time clown map, but the 18z GFS ends like this.)

[TheDreamTraveler]

13 hours ago, TimB84 said:

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. 
 

I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

Yeah this has been happening for the past 1 1/2 months. The cold and snow are coming and then it just never materializes once we get there. I think I lost count how many times I saw people get hyped for snow a week out and then had it turn into nothing. Sucks honestly. I've been super skeptical of this winter so I've been using 3 days out as a rule of thumb to get excited for anything and so far it seems to be working lol

[kerplunk]

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yeah this has been happening for the past 1 1/2 months. The cold and snow are coming and then it just never materializes once we get there. I think I lost count how many times I saw people get hyped for snow a week out and then had it turn into nothing. Sucks honestly. I've been super skeptical of this winter so I've been using 3 days out as a rule of thumb to get excited for anything and so far it seems to be working lol

Excitement now limited to mPing for me. Rarely disappointing.

[Bubbler86]

9 hours ago, TimB84 said:

 

(Big time clown map, but the 18z GFS ends like this.)

The clowns still have the deep trough but moved the orientation west a bit.  Frankly the GFS runs makes me feel a bit sick.  The cold air continues to stay locked away. 

[Blizzard of 93]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The clowns still have the deep trough but moved the orientation west a bit.  Frankly the GFS runs makes me feel a bit sick.  The cold air continues to stay locked away. 

The ensembles all look great in week 2

[MJO812]

Blame the typhoon for messing things up

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The ensembles all look great in week 2

Yea, I was just talking about the Op run.  I need to see that cold coming before I get too excited. 

[TimB]

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The clowns still have the deep trough but moved the orientation west a bit.  Frankly the GFS runs makes me feel a bit sick.  The cold air continues to stay locked away. 

Was going to say MDT gets about 6” of snow on the 0z but I see that’s all on the last day of the run and it’s the front end of a snow to rain system. And by then we’re up to the 35th day of winter.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The ensembles all look great in week 2

CMC ensemble looks good. GEFS 500 height anomaly is red over PA for much of its run.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Was going to say MDT gets about 6” of snow on the 0z but I see that’s all on the last day of the run and it’s the front end of a snow to rain system. And by then we’re up to the 35th day of winter.

I am not writing off winter weather but the Op is doing what we all fear...kicking cans.  Over the entire run, the daytime highs in the LSV stay below 40 only one day out of 15.    Hope it's wrong (well my wallet would like it). 

[paweather]

One run to the next run all different. I don’t know what to believe.

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

One run to the next run all different. I don’t know what to believe.

I am just looking for a signal that we have a source of actual cold air.  Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's is too warm IMO.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am just looking for a signal that we have a source of actual cold air.  Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's is too warm IMO.

Absolutely. Upper 30’s and low 40s is a cold rain scenario. I’m just looking for consistency with the model runs. One run we are excited the next is a Debbie downer.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am just looking for a signal that we have a source of actual cold air.  Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's is too warm IMO.

All of the good signals are on all of the ensembles starting next week.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Absolutely. Upper 30’s and low 40s is a cold rain scenario. I’m just looking for consistency with the model runs. One run we are excited the next is a Debbie downer.

It’s a roller coaster until next week

[Blizzard of 93]

We are stepping down. It snowed in New England yesterday and there was freezing precip in northern PA yesterday.

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s a roller coaster until next week

Can’t wait until next week! Let’s do it Blizz

[Blizzard of 93]

I would recommend to some of you take a look around at the different regional forums on here. Many of the long time quality respected and knowledgeable posters are very optimistic at the progression and look of the ensembles from week 2 onward.

[Blizzard of 93]

@paweather

Maybe this will hold you over until 12z today.

The 6z GFS has a little snow for us next Tuesday.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are the Euro and Canadian ensembles for day 13 (not day 15…). The good looks are not moving backwards in time.

These show the trough in the east and good blocking up top. Ridging is moving in the right direction off of the west coast.
We should be in business towards the end of the month and early in the New Year.

[Bubbler86]

55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would recommend to some of you take a look around at the different regional forums on here. Many of the long time quality respected and knowledgeable posters are very optimistic at the progression and look of the ensembles from week 2 onward.

In fairness, some of those same posters were talking pattern change as of today.  Pattern may have changed but there is no cold progged to settle in over us the next 10-14 days.    I personally am not looking beyond 10-14 days.  Jan may very well be rockin. 

[canderson]

I just want to wear a coat again. My LL Bean fleece is all I’ve needed this year. 

[CarlislePaWx]

42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the Euro and Canadian ensembles for day 13 (not day 15…). The good looks are not moving backwards in time.

These show the trough in the east and good blocking up top. Ridging is moving in the right direction off of the west coast.
We should be in business towards the end of the month and early in the New Year.

Okay...okay...everybody wishing for a west-based NAO can please stop wishing!  The center of the high heights have overshot and aren't even over Greenland on these maps.

[Voyager]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I just want to wear a coat again. My LL Bean fleece is all I’ve needed this year. 

I don't want to ever wear a coat again. I love the freedom of being able to go outside in shorts and a t-shirt. I actually and literally cringe when I hear someone say to "bundle up". I hate having to layer up in a half a load of laundry each day just to go to work...

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't want to ever wear a coat again. I love the freedom of being able to go outside in shorts and a t-shirt. I actually and literally cringe when I hear someone say to "bundle up". I hate having to layer up in a half a load of laundry each day just to go to work...

It’s like wearing a hug. Best. Feeling. Ever. 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't want to ever wear a coat again. I love the freedom of being able to go outside in shorts and a t-shirt. I actually and literally cringe when I hear someone say to "bundle up". I hate having to layer up in a half a load of laundry each day just to go to work...

Did you put a forecast in for the Christmas day contest?  My 49 looks a bit low right now.  May change.  

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did you put a forecast in for the Christmas day contest?  My 49 looks a bit low right now.  May change.  

The CMC would like a word with you. Oh wait, it’s on something.