Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 61 for a high here. Clouded over earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I topped out at 62. Some stark differences today in the highs across a relatively short distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I topped out at 62. Some stark differences today in the highs across a relatively short distance. For sure. I’m down to 56 already while canderson hits 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 67 was my high, currently still at 61 on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 10 hours ago, TimB84 said: The only thing I’ll add about “normals” is this, and I think I’ve said this before: seasonable temperatures are just fine if you don’t simply oscillate between normal and well above normal like what seems to happen a lot. The last time MDT recorded a negative double digit temp departure for a day was way back on 6/23. How many double digit positive departures have occurred between then and now? 22. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=ctp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a better then average chance at landing a clipper or 2 before the NY and probably a reasonable shot at a ns sw digging far enough for a Miller B type storm as well in the pattern setting up . Hell...I'll take a couple 1-3" clippers and scraps from a Miller B to finish out December Absolutely! 100% this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nowhere to go but under the block The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking. This GFS run shows it well on the 26th. I will take my chances with this look. Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The models the last day or so have started to recognize & show influence from the blocking. This GFS run shows it well on the 26th. I will take my chances with this look. Not a major storm pattern for now, but I will take a few Advisory level events or front end snow to mix type of events to get this Winter going. GFS much better trends today versus yesterday let’s hope trends continue our way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 hours ago, paweather said: It is getting closer that is a good look from here. Yes, it’s good to see 12z Euro put a storm under us at this time. I think enough cold air would be around for some snow if this track were to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a better then average chance at landing a clipper or 2 before the NY and probably a reasonable shot at a ns sw digging far enough for a Miller B type storm as well in the pattern setting up . Hell...I'll take a couple 1-3" clippers and scraps from a Miller B to finish out December I’ll take anything that lays in my sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Eps leaves more room for a decent climb up to NC at least ...compared to the 0z run . Decent shift ..still not good enough and still exit stage right lol and definitely a longgg shot but worth a nod I guess . 18z 0z It’s just a matter of time before a storm goes our way with the blocking that’s developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon with a better trough orientation at h5 . Still more work needed but a step This is certainly getting more interesting. There were some good looking solutions on various models back on Sunday and Monday for the 22nd timeframe. Maybe this storm will make a comeback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The 0z GFS says Merry Christmas with some light snow early Christmas morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The 0z GFS then keeps the low under us on the 26th. This would make Christmas weekend that much merrier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 That's a weird bullseye of Huntingdon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's a weird bullseye of Huntingdon. I’m sure the jackpot will end up in Cashtown or Rouzerville as usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Yesterday I wrote about the oddness of Williamsport getting over 24" of snow on Dec. 16-17, 2020 and then breaking our temperature record of 58 a year later. I didn't realize that Thursday was a scorcher all over the Northeast. I happened to see a chart posted by Buffalo Weather in the Upstate NY subforum that showed cities well to our north such as Syracuse hitting 67 and Montpelier, VT hitting 61 when here in Williamsport we only hit 60. At 5am we are 51 and will be about the same at 5pm. I wish we were not getting daytime rain again for the second Saturday in a row with Christmas almost here and I am sure I am not the only one thinking that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The 6z GFS is full of Winter storm potential during the holiday weeks. We should have a few tracking chances from now until the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The storm on the 22nd can not yet be written off. The 6z GFS is now taking it off the mid Atlantic coast out to sea, but it is much closer than recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The 6z GFS also has Winter weather opportunities on Christmas, the 26th and again the 29th. Lots of tracking coming soon! This will make the holidays merrier for most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Tomorrow morning we just miss out on a dusting of snow. Looks like we could also possibly get some freezing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Looks like good model runs overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: For kicks ....Euro control with a near Christmas miracle. Verbatim a north Pa / NY crusher ...a bit more dig for the SC Pa and N.Md . Plenty of time to remedy that That look good thanks Loseto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I feel like up until about Wednesday, we couldn't go a full cycle of guidance without reverting back to something tropical. I now believe we are about to flip the switch for a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Are we getting closer to the S word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 That center of high pressure over Greenland looks like a west-based NAO. Wasn't it only a few days ago that it was east-based? I think MAG was talking about that. A pretty incredible overnight with temps above 50 the whole night. I would think that's fairly rare. I'm down now to 49 and dropping very slowly. High of 63 yesterday, and it felt great! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: Are we getting closer to the S word? There has been mounting evidence for a while now. Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now. another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms. When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late. Can't deny that. Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: There has been mounting evidence for a while now. Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now. another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms. When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late. Can't deny that. Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug). Good stuff NUT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: That center of high pressure over Greenland looks like a west-based NAO. Wasn't it only a few days ago that it was east-based? I think MAG was talking about that. A pretty incredible overnight with temps above 50 the whole night. I would think that's fairly rare. I'm down now to 49 and dropping very slowly. High of 63 yesterday, and it felt great! When I left home this morning I was at 51, which was the lowest temp at that point. Got to 67 yesterday. Yes, the block is modeled in a better position for us and our snow chances. Positive signs are definitely showing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: There has been mounting evidence for a while now. Sure its easier to not believe or pooh pooh cause one feels snakebit or doesnt like what they see...whatevs, but like it or not, I've been posting info/maps/indicies in support of it for a while now. Does it mean its gonna snow....hell no....I'm not that stupid, but does it mean we are headed for better chances....absofrigginlutely, and thats all I've been in search of. Time will tell, but seeing op runs of last day or so, says they are latching onto appreciable changes upstairs that has been showing on Ens guidance for a little while now. another tool is to watch Op/Ens and when they show less divergence, odd's go up a couple ticks more. It hasnt been easy to get here, and lets hope trends continue so we can hopefully lay down some white before the next warmup looms. When that happens...??? But I'm sure some are already searching for it, as that seems easier to find/discuss of late. Can't deny that. Working from home, so I might be able to check in a bit more (yes....I've got THAT bug). Perfectly stated. Odds are on the increase for wintry weather during the final 7 or so days of the year. As you said, no guarantees, but at least the winter weather convo is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now